polls

From the "you don't say" file:

Republicans received a boost over Democrats in landline-only telephone polls, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Polls this fall that reached only landline phone numbers ended up giving Republicans an extra five percentage points compared with polls that dialed both landline and mobile phones, the study concluded. Pew said that’s because almost a quarter of U.S. homes don’t have a landline telephone number, and cell phone users tend to be younger and more Democratic.

This serves as a reminder to be especially critical of polls purporting to measure any kind of reality while failing to allow for representation of cell phone-only households in its results. Given the tendency of youth to forego landlines, we'd be doing ourselves a disservice to continue to peddle the polling garbage that is landline-only surveys.

Yesterday, Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, of NDN fame, presented the findings of an online poll they conducted from June 1-7. The report, "The Changing Coalitions of 21st Century America," explores how the parties are adapting to rapidly changing demographics in America.

The data affirms what we have been noting for some time now.

While most Americans continue to favor activist government focused on promoting economic equality, those components of the electorate that identify most strongly with the Democratic Party are much more likely to want to see that approach reflected in legislation on such issues as health care, education, and off shore drilling. In addition, while both party's coalitions want action on the economy and financial reform, only major groups within the GOP coalition are strongly concerned with reducing government spending and the federal debt. These deeply felt differences are likely to be reflected in the 2010 midterm elections campaigns and on Capitol Hill in the years ahead.

Democrats retain a clear lead in both party identification and the congressional generic ballot that is virtually unchanged from the lead they held in the project's first survey conducted in February 2010. The core groups of the Democratic Party's new coalition - Millennials, African-Americans, Hispanics - remain solidly Democratic in both their partisan identifications and vote intentions, but the current lack of political intensity among these Democratic groups give Republicans an opening to make gains in 2010.

In short: the Democratic coalition has the demographic trends in their favor, but whether or not they can effectively mobilize these voters in a hostile environment is the big question.

Morley and Mike's presentation can be found here and the executive summary is here.

USA Today/Gallup released results of a poll this morning showing support for health care reform remains steady among Americans – 49 percent to 46 percent, an increase of 4 percent since April -- while support among young Americans (18-29 years old) has increased.

From the poll:

Say Congress passing Affordable Care Act was a Good Thing:

• 57 percent of young adults age 18 to 29 – up 7 percent since April; 40 percent disagree
• 51 percent of Americans age 50 to 64 – up 7 percent since April; 44 percent disagree
• 49 percent of Americans age 30 to 49; 43 percent disagree.

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein concludes that "it does seem we're looking at a trend…it does show support rising and opposition falling."

And the Republicans want to repeal this? Bad move.

Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote (WVWV) released a new survey on voting and civic engagement in the 2008 election (h/t Tom Manatos). The survey looks specifically at the “Rising American Electorate”, defined by those demographics that are increasingly progressive and populous--unmarried women, African American voters, Latino and young voters. These demographics were strong Obama supporters and voters. The survey totals 1,649 interviews, 337 of which are of young voters. While the youth sample size is smaller than other surveys on similar topics (as well as when compared to the over three demographics groups in the survey), it is the most recent survey of its kind to investigate the 2008 election. Let’s begin with some of the big findings on young voters.

• 79 percent support the Stimulus package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Obama
• Only 36 percent rate their personal economic situation as ‘Excellent’ or ‘Good‘
• 77 percent feel that President Obama is speaking directly to them and the issues they care about
• 46 percent reported that they were absolutely certain they would vote in the 2010 election cycle.

The broad support for President Obama and the stimulus package probably stems from the fact that campaign promises were kept about college affordability and green jobs, especially given the fact that two-thirds of young people view their economic situation as ’just fair’ or ’poor’. And just two nights ago, President Obama addressed another issue that has found strong support from young people in other surveys--community service. The proposal, known as the Kennedy-Hatch Serve America Act would help “get the underemployed (primarily young people) working in communities badly hit by the recession”, argue Christopher Gergen and Gregg Vanorek in a Washington Times Op-Ed piece. Peter Levine, on a similar line of reasoning, supports the Kennedy-Hatch Act, too:

The more advantaged half of the young population that attends college receives educational opportunities subsidized by the public. But those who do not continue formal education beyond high school find that almost all government-funded educational programs have age limits of 18 or 21. Working-class youth are basically subsidizing their more advantaged peers' learning opportunities with their tax dollars. Service programs such as YouthBuild, Public Allies, City Year, and the National Civilian Community Corps (among others) help to right this imbalance by offering opportunities to young adults who may not be on the college track.

This survey by WVWV finds that the Rising American Electorate is increasingly progressive, but warns that there are other forces at work to stop the momentum. This is perhaps true for African American and Latino voters who have taken socially conservative stances on some issues, such as gay rights. The Proposition 8 vote in California, which sought to change the state’s constitution to ban gay marriage, was supported by majorities of both African American (70 percent YES) and Latino voters (53 percent YES) of any age. Not so with young voters, who were the only demographic group against the proposition (61 percent NO). More broadly, Millennials are the most progressive cohort in decades, a finding from The Millennial Pendulum, already blogged about by FM co-bloggers Mike and Craig. And then add to all that the parity in political party identity, which favors the Democrats.

An election may have just passed, but 2010 is already on the horizon. The WVWV report finds that young voters are the most likely demographic to “drop-off” their participation rate from the 2008 presidential election to the 2010 cycle, but the report doesn’t reveal the percentage of youth that intend to vote in 2010, regardless of the degree of certainty. Still, it is true that young voters, along with all voters, have lower voter turnout rates in non-Presidential cycles. Young voters did increase their turnout from the 2002 to 2006 midterm elections (PDF), but with the current recession and uncertainty about funding, GOTV and registration efforts will need to be efficient for 2010 in order to keep up the participation level among young voters.

As I mentioned in yesterday's Quick Hits post, Neil Howe has revisited the politics of Millennials in a report co-authored with Reena Nadler, titled "Yes We Can: The Emergence of Millennials as a Political Generation." Howe and Nadler examine the political motivations of today's young people through the lens of the the framework Howe and his late research partner, William Strauss, produced a decade ago. The report, which was released by New America Foundation as a part of its Next Social Contract Initiative, is available in a .pdf file here. This report, and Peter Levine's report, titled "The Millennial Pendulum: A New Generation of Voters and the Prospects for a Political Realignment," will be released at an event at the New America Foundation (1630 Connecticut Avenue, NW 7th Floor, Washington, DC). Participants include Neil Howe, Reena Nadler, Peter Levine and Scott Keeter (Director of Survey Research at Pew Research Center), and Hans Riemer (National Youth Vote Director for the Obama campaign and former Political and Issues Director for Rock the Vote).

The first portion of the report rehashes what the Millennial Generation is, how it fits into American history, and the generation's collective personality. In fact, Howe and Nadler examine the development of the Millennials using the seven adjectives Howe and Strauss used to describe Millennials in their book Millennials Rising: special, sheltered, confident, team-oriented, conventional, pressured, and achieving.

Eventually, Howe and Nadler delve into the development of the Millennials' political personality. Conceding that it is too early to know whether or not the Millennial trend toward the Democratic Party is a sure thing and that Millennials are somewhat complex politicos, often taking hybrid positions, Howe and Nadler label Millennials as "politically and economically liberal but socially and culturally conservative." The authors compare the politics of today's youth with the views of "Reagan Democrats," seeing similarities in each generation's political orientation.

At first, the conservative label threw me off. I remembered reading in Generation We that Millennials are much more tolerant socially than their elders. For instance:

On race, too, there’s strong trend among Generation We toward seeing race as fundamentally a nonissue. In 2003, almost all (89 percent) of white 18- to 25-year-old Millennials said they agreed that “it’s all right for Blacks and Whites to date each other,” including 64 percent who “completely” agreed. Back in 1987–1988, when the same question was posed to white 18- to 25-year-old Gen Xers, just 56 percent agreed with this statement.

Gallup data from a 2005 poll underscore these findings; 95 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds said they approve of Blacks and Whites dating, and 60 percent of this age group said they had dated someone of a different race. In addition, 82 percent of white 18- to 25-year-old Millennials in 2003 disagreed with the idea that they “don’t have much in common with people of other races.”

But it is their views on sexual preference issues that are perhaps the most strikingly liberal. On gays, the views of Generation We are far more liberal than that of their elders. For example, in a 2007 Pew survey, an outright majority (56 percent) of 18- to 29-year-olds supported allowing gays and lesbians to marry, while the public as a whole opposed gay marriage by a 55-to-37 majority.

Millennials are also concerned about political trends that put tolerance at risk. In an April 2005 GQR poll of 18- to 25-year-olds, 64 percent believed that religious conservatives had gone too far in invading people’s personal lives, and 58 percent thought the country needs to work harder at accepting and tolerating gays, rather than work harder
at upholding traditional values.

But Howe and Nadler weren't necessarily talking about same-sex marriage and abortion (which Millennials do not view either more progressively or conservatively than their Boomer parents). Instead, they were focusing on the Millennial fondness for the family structure. Emphasis is mine.

Millennials are maintaining strong emotional, physical, and financial connections with their families as they enter adulthood. Throughout their childhood and adolescence, they have been more likely than the last two generations to trust their parents, depend on their support, and discuss important personal matters with them. Looking ahead, Millennials also place great importance on starting their own nuclear families. They are less interested than their Boomer parents in reforming family life and discussing (or arguing about) “family values.” Most prefer to take the importance of families for granted and try to make them work. Like older liberals, they support a broad definition of acceptable family structures. Like older conservatives, they believe that strong families are the cornerstone of a stable and livable society.

[...]

Despite this family-oriented “traditionalism,” today’s youth are more likely than older Americans to believe that unconventional families can be just as close and stable as traditional families. Millennials believe that the opportunity to participate in family life is so important that nobody should be left out. This generation is nearly twice as likely as older Americans to favor gay marriage, and they are the only age group that favors allowing gays to adopt children.

Republican youth, as Mike noted earlier this week, like to see a path back to parity among today's youth in the "socially conservative" nature of Millennials, but as you just read, this proves to be fool's gold. This isn't your Republican Boomer parent's "socially conservative" philosophy.

Furthermore, what Howe and Nadler don't substantively touch upon is that Millennials are much more apt to think economically when thinking of matters of national importance. Arguments over the fabric of the nation consist not of abortions and the possibility of gays marrying each other, but of the social safety net and entitlement reform. The fiscally liberal Millennials will be placing much more emphasis on defining its pro-government priorities in the budget than on any social viewpoints, especially given the nature of the economic crisis. This certainly counts for something and can't be overlooked when assessing the next twenty or thirty years of politics.

Howe and Nadler center their report on "ten imperatives" they think will form the Millennial political agenda moving forward.

1. Strengthen Community
2. Trust the System
3. Minimize Personal Risk
4. Support the Family
5. Be Upbeat and Optimistic
6. Make Capitalism Work Better
7. Champion Unity over Diversity
8. Favor Realistic and Multilateral World Leadership
9. Seek Consensus and Decorum in Politics
10. Plan Ahead for the Long-term

I don't think any of these would necessarily surprise those of us interested in Millennial political behavior, other than the way Howe and Nadler have Millennials supporting the family compared to our conservative counterparts. One thing to underscore might be the economic liberalism of today's young people. Again and again, Howe and Nadler point out the pro-government, pro-regulation mindset among the generation, careful to include that Millennials don't despise business and the markets. Raised amid excessive individualism, Millennials tend to see a group solution to many crises, and so with our global financial crisis, it's only natural that they look to an institution like the government for solutions.

Looking into the future, Howe and Nadler underscored entitlement reform as something Millennials will use to grab a hold of the political discussion. Howe and Nadler predict that future-oriented Millennials will be the generation with the political ability and will to make tough, sustainable fiscal decisions, reforming Social Security and Medicare.

All in all, Howe and Nadler's report is a good start. Millennials are clearly already starting to impact our politics in a major way. But I think there's more that can be said regarding the future agenda for the generation, especially given Howe and Nadler's prediction that Millennials will coalesce behind one party in a civil, pragmatic way. For example, at what point does the climate crisis begin to supercede entitlement reform as the largest challenge? Will we be recovered from today's mess in time to deal with that? A great foundation, but I'll be looking for more to read on this in the months and years to come.

A new report by the PEW Research Center shows that Bush's base among young voters - young, white evangelicals - is tanking hard. According to PEW, young, white evangelical support for Bush has plummeted 42%, from a high of 87% in 2002 to today's low of 45%. Consequently, this has also translated into declining support for the GOP, which has seen a 15% drop in party ID among this demographic. This decline in support is mirrored among older evangelicals, however the decline isn't nearly as dramatic among those over 30.

PEW is quick to note that this isn't necessarily translating into greater support for Democrats among this audience. Young evangelicals are still a much more conservative group than the rest of the Millennial generation. They are twice as likely to be Republican, 60% of them still support the war in Iraq, and on issues like abortion and capital punishment, they are also extremely conservative in their views.

PEW suggests that this dissatisfaction rests not so much with the party or conservative philosophy, but rather the execution of policy by this particular administration. This may well be the case, though I wonder how much Bush's stance on issues like global poverty and global warming have to do with it, as there has been a push in the evangelical community to support positions on these issues that are traditionally considered more liberal.

One issue that PEW doesn' address is what effect this might have on turnout and the election. These findings come just as The New York Times is reporting that Christian conservative leaders are considering a third-party candidate if pro-choice candidate Rudy Giuliani heads the Republican ticket. Could these young evangelicals be gearing up to have their own "Nader" moment? Are we going to see a not-insubstantial portion of the youth wing of the Republican party bolt for an independent bid as so many lefty youth did in 2000 when Nader was running on the Green Party ticket?

That would be an interesting scenario, and might even cripple the Republican candidate in a number of states as those young people, who would likely be footsoldiers in the Republican ground-game, put their efforts somewhere else (or, utterly disaffected, just sat it out at home).

Annie Schectman is our new intern here at Future Majority. She'll be compiling our "Around the Tubes" posts for the summer, as well as helping us have a deeper presence on FaceBook and MySpace. Give her a warm welcome. --Editors

Around the Tubes: An account of the week’s most interesting posts.

• On June 28, Aaron Blake posted on The Hill, illustrating the trends of Republican voters concerning health care, foreign policy, and gays in the military. The post revealed the lack of growth within the party, as millennials tend to be more progressive and ideological divides stratify older voters. According to the poll, “41 percent of Republicans [are] now 55 or older, compared to 28 percent in 1997.” While the Republicans polled self-identified as conservatives, most endorsed candidate Rudy Guliani, who leads the polls with a notoriously checkered background
• YouTube and CNN have partnered up to create Community Counts, an awesome way to make the presidential debates interactive. The democratic site allows voters to post video questions for the candidates like “What is your position on gays in the military?” or “What is your gun control policy?” Anyone can then vote to determine which questions are asked, relieving Anderson Cooper from his position as youth-question moderator -- much to the relief of all young politicos. The videos are all tame, but like everything on YouTube, they are infinitely creative and genuinely young.
• Also on YouTube, a jarring anti-war video featuring portraits of dejected Iraqi children. The propagandist post is hokey but effective.
• Emily Greenhouse of The Nation writes about SAVE (The Student Association for Voter Empowerment), a new for-youth by-youth organization that strives to increase electoral participation among young voters by making the system more accessible. SAVE hopes to permeate college campuses by next fall but needs financial support. As a high school junior eagerly searching for politically active campuses, I am thrilled by organizations like SAVE that bolster my confidence in my generation of progressive voters.
• Generation Debt reviewed Michael Moore’s latest film “Sicko,” focusing specifically on Moore’s comments about the effect of student loans on young voters. Debt, Moore and his interviewees assert, demoralizes and frightens young Americans, effectively subverting voter turnout. The post’s comments were overwhelmingly antagonistic towards Moore (I think unwarrantedly). True, Moore can be crude, sensational, and controversial, but I was pleasantly surprised by the success of Sicko. I found it informative and well-supported. In fact, I thought his reflection on student loans was a slight divergence from his health care narrative but not at all egregious. Besides, when the mainstream media is dominated by Bush-apologists, what’s wrong with a little progressive propaganda?

Matt Singer is the CEO of Forward Montana, a home-grown non-profit that trains, mobilizes, and elects new progressive leaders in Montana. This isn't his assigned guest-posting topic, but he can't help himself.

The New York Times has a new poll of young voters available. The poll was done in partnership with CBS and MTV.

Some of the news is wholly unsurprising. Young voters "are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage." In other words, we're all a bunch of dirty, f*cking hippies.

Until you read the next sentence: "The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion."

wHa?!?!?