polls

A new report by the PEW Research Center shows that Bush's base among young voters - young, white evangelicals - is tanking hard. According to PEW, young, white evangelical support for Bush has plummeted 42%, from a high of 87% in 2002 to today's low of 45%. Consequently, this has also translated into declining support for the GOP, which has seen a 15% drop in party ID among this demographic. This decline in support is mirrored among older evangelicals, however the decline isn't nearly as dramatic among those over 30.

PEW is quick to note that this isn't necessarily translating into greater support for Democrats among this audience. Young evangelicals are still a much more conservative group than the rest of the Millennial generation. They are twice as likely to be Republican, 60% of them still support the war in Iraq, and on issues like abortion and capital punishment, they are also extremely conservative in their views.

PEW suggests that this dissatisfaction rests not so much with the party or conservative philosophy, but rather the execution of policy by this particular administration. This may well be the case, though I wonder how much Bush's stance on issues like global poverty and global warming have to do with it, as there has been a push in the evangelical community to support positions on these issues that are traditionally considered more liberal.

One issue that PEW doesn' address is what effect this might have on turnout and the election. These findings come just as The New York Times is reporting that Christian conservative leaders are considering a third-party candidate if pro-choice candidate Rudy Giuliani heads the Republican ticket. Could these young evangelicals be gearing up to have their own "Nader" moment? Are we going to see a not-insubstantial portion of the youth wing of the Republican party bolt for an independent bid as so many lefty youth did in 2000 when Nader was running on the Green Party ticket?

That would be an interesting scenario, and might even cripple the Republican candidate in a number of states as those young people, who would likely be footsoldiers in the Republican ground-game, put their efforts somewhere else (or, utterly disaffected, just sat it out at home).

Annie Schectman is our new intern here at Future Majority. She'll be compiling our "Around the Tubes" posts for the summer, as well as helping us have a deeper presence on FaceBook and MySpace. Give her a warm welcome. --Editors

Around the Tubes: An account of the week’s most interesting posts.

• On June 28, Aaron Blake posted on The Hill, illustrating the trends of Republican voters concerning health care, foreign policy, and gays in the military. The post revealed the lack of growth within the party, as millennials tend to be more progressive and ideological divides stratify older voters. According to the poll, “41 percent of Republicans [are] now 55 or older, compared to 28 percent in 1997.” While the Republicans polled self-identified as conservatives, most endorsed candidate Rudy Guliani, who leads the polls with a notoriously checkered background
• YouTube and CNN have partnered up to create Community Counts, an awesome way to make the presidential debates interactive. The democratic site allows voters to post video questions for the candidates like “What is your position on gays in the military?” or “What is your gun control policy?” Anyone can then vote to determine which questions are asked, relieving Anderson Cooper from his position as youth-question moderator -- much to the relief of all young politicos. The videos are all tame, but like everything on YouTube, they are infinitely creative and genuinely young.
• Also on YouTube, a jarring anti-war video featuring portraits of dejected Iraqi children. The propagandist post is hokey but effective.
• Emily Greenhouse of The Nation writes about SAVE (The Student Association for Voter Empowerment), a new for-youth by-youth organization that strives to increase electoral participation among young voters by making the system more accessible. SAVE hopes to permeate college campuses by next fall but needs financial support. As a high school junior eagerly searching for politically active campuses, I am thrilled by organizations like SAVE that bolster my confidence in my generation of progressive voters.
• Generation Debt reviewed Michael Moore’s latest film “Sicko,” focusing specifically on Moore’s comments about the effect of student loans on young voters. Debt, Moore and his interviewees assert, demoralizes and frightens young Americans, effectively subverting voter turnout. The post’s comments were overwhelmingly antagonistic towards Moore (I think unwarrantedly). True, Moore can be crude, sensational, and controversial, but I was pleasantly surprised by the success of Sicko. I found it informative and well-supported. In fact, I thought his reflection on student loans was a slight divergence from his health care narrative but not at all egregious. Besides, when the mainstream media is dominated by Bush-apologists, what’s wrong with a little progressive propaganda?

Matt Singer is the CEO of Forward Montana, a home-grown non-profit that trains, mobilizes, and elects new progressive leaders in Montana. This isn't his assigned guest-posting topic, but he can't help himself.

The New York Times has a new poll of young voters available. The poll was done in partnership with CBS and MTV.

Some of the news is wholly unsurprising. Young voters "are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage." In other words, we're all a bunch of dirty, f*cking hippies.

Until you read the next sentence: "The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion."

wHa?!?!?