race

I referred to it this past weekend, but I wanted to be sure I clarified a portion of Kentucky Republican senatorial candidate Rand Paul's episode given Sarah Palin's recent defense of Paul.

Palin was trying to make the case, like she did after her horrible interview with CBS's Katie Couric, that the media is out to get candidates, looking for "gotcha" moments. Thus, according to Palin, Rachel Maddow conspired to get Rand Paul to flip-flop all over the place in his appearance on her show last week, which set this debacle into action.

Yet, Frank Rich notes this is a fallacy. Again and again, long after its passing, Paul is on record as saying he is not behind the Civil Rights Act:

With Rand Paul, we also get further evidence of race’s role in a movement whose growth precisely parallels the ascent of America’s first African-American president. The usual Tea Party apologists are saying that it was merely a gaffe — and a liberal media trap — when Paul on Wednesday refused to tell Rachel Maddow of MSNBC that he could fully support the Civil Rights Act of 1964. But Paul has expressed similar sentiments repeatedly, at least as far back as 2002.

The more the Democrats can use Paul to represent what the GOP is increasingly representing in American politics -- the idea that no government is better than any government -- the better shot they have at avoiding a major beating at the polls come November, especially if Democrats are successful in mobilizing pro-government Millennials. This is why people like Fox analyst and ex-Bush adviser Karl Rove phoned Paul at the end of last week begging him to cancel his scheduled appearance on Meet the Press.

Brandon Griefe at U.S. News and World Report wrote a piece yesterday arguing that the Republicans have an opportunity to make amends with young, Millennial voters given the "genuine fear" created by Democratic spending.

With such a large and active base of young supporters it would appear Democrats have their Republican opponents nearing checkmate. But a closer look at the chessboard reveals neither party is in good strategic position to topple the other’s king.

The Republicans’ problem has been their inability to connect with youth and minorities. Only recently have they begun to deemphasize the socially conservative aspects of their platform that have polarized voters since the culture wars of the 1960s. A recent Pew Research poll found that young adults are “clearly more accepting than older Americans of homosexuality, more inclined to see evolution as the best explanation of human life and…are much less likely to affiliate with any religious tradition.” These and other social issues are not major concerns of young adults, a fact that is slowly being realized as Republicans seek to broaden their voting base.

But Democrats’ recent legislative priorities show they’ve also done a poor job at setting the board up for success. Enormous debt and deficit spending to fund a variety of new programs has created a dire fiscal future that is creating genuine fear among young adults. Then-Sen. Barack Obama said it best in 2006:

Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means ‘the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

The rhetoric of 2006 has not translated into reality come 2010. The failure of leadership now continues under his watch with trillions in new debt obligations. Young adults will not be able to ignore the red ink that fills the nation’s ledger forever. Unless Democrats act quickly to reverse the growth of the government’s deficit they will poison the well of Millennial support that carried them to historic victories in 2008.

Griefe's analysis is faulty and disingenuous for three reasons.

1.) I don't believe I saw anything from Griefe or anyone else about deficit spending when George W. Bush was in the White House. When Bush entered the Oval Office, Bill Clinton handed his administration a surplus. When he left, we were trillions of dollars in debt. Two major tax cuts and two wars did quite a bit of damage:

Obama's stimulus package accounted for only .07/$1.00 of the national debt when he signed it into law. Nearly 90 percent of the debt was created under George W. Bush.

To clean up the mess Bush left, Obama has to spend more.

2.) The message about the national debt does not carry any water with Millennials, especially since they are encountering the worst youth unemployment rate since World War II. Our friend Karlo tackled this conservative talking point last year, aptly comparing someone climbing a hill to one's life-long relationship with government.

Imagine for a moment that you are trying to traverse a hill. The hill represents how much taxes you expect to pay over your lifetime. One end of the hill is the start (the beginning of your life), the top of the hill is middle-age, and the other end of the hill is, well, six-feet-under. At both ends of the hill, you pay relatively little in taxes, and the top of the hill is when you pay the most in taxes. This is what tax-paying looks like throughout the course of one's life. For some generations, traversing this hill was made easier (but not faster), because the government helped invest in the well-being of the tax-payer very early on in life.

This is not the case with Millennials. The rising cost (PDF) of college and beyond has not resulted in a proportionate increase in services or resources. When you place this fact of rising costs into the context of rising college attendance, the effect is magnified. The share of young people that have attended college has increased 21 percentage points from the 1970s to the present (PDF, pg. 5). What's more is the fact young people with post-graduate degrees on are on the rise, too. What all this amounts to is a more difficult (but not slower) journey over the hill. It's almost as if Millennials have to carry a heavy backpack (read: student debt) and still keep pace with everyone else. Now add to that the fact that the end of the hill for Millennials is much farther away than it is for previous generations due to longer life expectancy.

In addition to this, Millennials themselves tell National Journal that they think Obama's spending has been a good thing.

A plurality of Millennials say they believe that the president's agenda will increase rather than diminish opportunities for their generation (41 percent to 27 percent). More respondents say that his policies averted an even worse economic crisis (44 percent) than believe that Obama ran up the national debt without doing much good (36 percent). By 46 percent to 31 percent, they also say that the comprehensive health care reform bill Obama recently signed into law is a good thing for the country. Just one-fourth believe that the country is worse off because of the president's policies; the rest feel that his efforts have significantly improved conditions (16 percent) or are beginning to move the nation in the right direction, even if they haven't yet produced major gains (43 percent).

Given the toxic economy the Bush policies gave Millennials as they have come of age, making the figurative hill even steeper, the government must invest in the youngest generation to ensure they have a chance of getting over the top, and thankfully, it is.

3.) Griefe comically cites a list of GOPers including Rand Paul and Bob McDonnell as smartly handling social issues in order to keep the focus on the fiscal matters at hand.

This is pretty simple.

Rand Paul doesn't think the 1964 Civil Rights Act should have passed.

Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia issues a proclamation for Confederate History Month in the commonwealth, failing to mention trafficking of human beings and the consequential brutal decades of Jim Crow.

I'm not sure whether Griefe had a brain lapse here or what. Griefe is right that if the GOP can't get social issues right, they won't have any shot at Millennials period. Justin Miller at The Atlantic notes this, describing Millennials as the generation least tolerant of racism. The list of Republicans Griefe provides, though, is laughable. Their clumsy navigation of social issues has provided Democrats with several opportunities to beat back any Republican momentum.

The generational theft argument sounds good, but it doesn't play with young people. It plays even less with Millennials when it's shrouded in social issues.

Nice effort. Back to the drawing board.

• Social Media and the New Model of Civic Engagement.
• Facebook Causes breaks the $10 million barrier. What an amazing feat!
• Check out this piece on the new GOP 'racist' headache'.
• Obama student loan plan wins support in the House.
• Energy Action Coalition gets quoted in this NY Times piece on Obama and the climate bill
• Kudos to @80MS: College Grads Face IOUs, Worst Job Market in Years.

CIRCLE has released new data on the racial, gender, and educational makeup of the 2008 youth vote. Here's a quick look at the findings:

Education gaps in turnout reported during the primaries persisted in the general election, with non-college young voters turning out at much lower rates than did their college-educated (or attending) counterparts. In the primaries, NPR reported that only 1 in 14 non-college youth voted compared to 1 in 4 college youth. CIRCLE didn't crunch that particular statistic this time, but the numbers for non-college youth are still grim, as they vastly underperformed their share of the electorate.

The takeaway here should be that, evidence to the contrary, Obama didn't have the youth vote all wrapped up - he had the college educated youth vote wrapped up. Structural barriers to participation, lack of civics education, and a lack of outreach on the part of campaigns are still keeping a significant number of Millennials away from the polls.

Regardless of their rates of participation, support for Obama was constant among Millennials of all educational backgrounds. This was a significant change from the primaries, where less educated Millennials tended to throw their support behind Hillary Clinton.

Claims of a post-racial American proved to be untrue. Even among young voters race was a significant factor in determining one's vote, and young voters admitted as much:

Young people were more likely than older people to say that candidates' race was a factor (24% versus 19% of all voters).

It should be noted, however, that Obama made extraordinary gains among young white voters compared to previous Democratic candidates, and young white voters were much more likely to vote for him than were older white voters. This was also true among young Latino voters:

Obama ran the table with young voters who were also "new voters:"

As would be expected, many young voters were first-time voters: 64% of 18-24 year-olds and 43% of 18-29 year-olds were first time voters. This compares to just 11% of all voters.

Young voters were relatively late to make up their minds: only 50% of young voters said they had made up their minds before September compared to 60% of the entire electorate.

It was speculated before the election, that this campaign would to mobilize a large number of African-American and Latino voters. Forty-five percent of 18-29 years-old African-American voters and 61% of 18-to-29 year-old Latino voters cast their ballots for the first time, compared to 37% of young white voters.

Finally, CIRCLE identifies young woman as the unsung heroes of Obama's margin among Millennials:

Young women cast 55% of the votes for the 18 to 29 age group, which was consistent with the overall trend (53% of all votes were cast by women). However, this pattern was especially strong for young African American voters, 61% of whom were women. One exception to this pattern was seen among the young voters without high school diploma. Within this group, men cast more (57%) of the votes than women (43%). This gender balance reflects the proportion in the general population for this particular group (55% males, 45% females).

The verdict from PEW, which is working off of the exit polling data:

Without a doubt, the overwhelming backing of younger voters was a critical factor in Obama's victory, according to an analysis of National Election Pool exit polls that were provided by National Public Radio. Obama drew two-thirds (66%) of the vote among those younger than age 30. This age group was Kerry's strongest four years ago, but he drew a much narrower 54% majority.

Taking our own look at the exit poll data, here's how the youth vote broke down within various racial demographics:

The margins among black and latino youth are enormous and I'm eager to see what the turnout was for those groups when we get more data. At the moment, though, the breakdown of white youth is most interesting to me. In 2004, Kerry lost white youth to President Bush 58 - 40%. On Tuesday, Obama gained 14 points on Kerry's support among white youth, while McCain lost 14 on Bush's support. White youth still make up a majority of young voters (though that is quickly changing) and that is an enormous amount of votes.

A new report from the Center for American Progress notes that on a number of core progressive issues, the gap between people of color and whites is radically shrinking - if not erased - among young Americans:

• Over the past 20 years, an average of 86 percent of blacks aged 18 to 29 agreed that labor unions are necessary to protect workers, while 72 percent of young whites agreed—a 14 percentage-point progressive gap. Today the gap is just 2 percentage points.

• Forty-six percent of young Hispanics over the past two decades believed it is the government’s responsibility to ensure a good job and standard of living for all, while just 35 percent of young whites did—a gap of 11 percentage points. Today, the gap is less than 6 percentage points.

• An average of 55 percent of young blacks and 54 percent of young Hispanics over the past 20 years have supported universal health care provided by the government, while 45 percent of young whites held this view. Today, young whites are slightly more supportive of universal government-provided health care than young Hispanics and nearly as supportive as young blacks.

• Over the last two decades, an average of 88 percent of young blacks and 83 percent of young Hispanics thought federal spending for education should be increased, compared
to 78 percent of young whites. Today, Millennial generation whites have nearly cut in half the gap between themselves and young blacks and have overtaken Hispanics.

• An average of 85 percent of blacks, 72 percent of Hispanics, and 51 percent of whites aged 18 to 29 over the past two decades have supported increased federal spending for the poor—a gap of 34 percentage points between young blacks and young whites and 21 percentage points between young Hispanics and young whites. In the most recent survey, whites had reduced the gap with blacks by almost 10 percentage points and had cut it in half with Hispanics.

So what is causing this shift and consolidation in political philosophy among Millennials? The report looks at the economy as a potential catalyst for this shift among young white voters:

Young adults today have more similar views perhaps because they face a common economic struggle. Millennials are confronting far more significant economic challenges than other recent generations—such as lower rates of health care coverage, worse job prospects, and higher levels of student loan debt—and are likely reacting to the conservative policies that have created much of their financial difficulties. It also appears that the gap is closing in part because young minorities tend to keep the progressive views of their elders, while young whites are increasingly rejecting the more conservative views of elder whites.

This is generally in keeping with what we've seen in partisan politics. Millennials are self-identifying as Democrats in greater numbers than ever before, and even at levels of 50 - 29% over Republicans. Young voters are showing their support for Obama at a rate of 2 - 1 over John McCain.

What this new CAP reports adds to the discussion is evidence that this isn't about a cult of personality. It's about issues and core philosophies about the roles and responsibilities of government. As no other generation in recent times, Millennials are forging a generational policy consensus around economic issues and the role of government. It's still nothing more than potential energy that needs to be activated and mobilized towards a legislative agenda, but this is a good sign and something that the November 5th Coalition, Gen Vote, HCAN, and We Can Solve It can build off of post-election.

These are two of my new friends. Princella and Richard, who, despite their republicanism are remarkable young leaders. Wednesday, I met with many of the Young Republicans in the party who can't help but notice that the stereotypes of old, white, men are more valid than they would like.

Leaders from the popular youth blog HipHopRepublican.com sat down with me to talk about opportunities that their party could harness if they were only willing to do the kind of outreach that Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama's campaign does.

The young people all have ambitions to achieve goals or run for office, but they are fighting an uphill battle in a tough establishment world. Its the one thing that we as young democrats share with them. Their optimism reigns supreme, however, and they push mountains in efforts to move their party to something a little more mainstream or at the very least reflective of the 21st Century.

I sat down with Princella Smith, a young woman who works for former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich's new organization American Solutions. Ms. Smith got her start from a competition offered by MTV several years ago that allowed her to play a major roll in forums during the previous presidential election. She now serves as a major policy adviser and spokesperson for American Solutions - all before the age of 30. She is connected and personable.

In passing I mentioned that I was hoping to get an interview with Michael Steele candidate for Lt. Governor in Maryland. I had seen his commercials years ago when he ran and enjoyed the ad which became known as the Puppy Kicker ad from 2006 that I still find to be so outside the box and original. His concept of anti-washington and change endeared me to him, as much as a partisan hack like myself could be endeared to a republican.

Princella quickly dragged me over to what was known as Radio Row where all the talk news stations were poised to do interviews as politicians and prominent party people passed through the halls. Against the wall was Michael Steele doing a quick interview. Princella introduced us and before I knew it snapped a picture. I can safely say that it is the only picture of me with a Republican politician. But Michael Steele I don't mind, because at least he likes puppies. See the full video of the interview with Princella here.

Morgan Thomas is still in collage but already works on three campaigns this year all while serving her duties on the national board of Young Republicans. She is clearly a bright and eager young woman who hopes to win a mayoral seat before she is 30 and eventually run for governor. This was her first convention and the nomination of Gov. Sarah Palin had excited and encouraged her as a young female republican. See the full video of my interview with her here.

Claudio Simpkins told me that he frequently gets confused for Barack Obama, and with a beaming smile it isn't hard to understand why. From a broken home that had drugs and hardship bearing down on him it would have been easy for him to fall between the cracks of the system. Instead, Claudio rose to the challenge and is now at Harvard Law School. He has a deep passion to give back to his community with no real immediate enthusiasm about running for office. It doesn't stop him from having a little fun when people ask his friends "Wait... Is that? Is that him!?" See the full interview of him here.

Richard Ivory came up to my cafe table asking if we could share it because there weren't any others around. We introduced ourselves and I knew instantly that we were allies in the youth movement. Richard started HipHopRepublican in attempts to bring more youth to politics on his side of the partisan divide. Republicans aren't popular in New York City and Richard describes himself as a moderate who is heavily influenced by Mayor Michael Bloomberg whose campaign he worked on. After talking issues with Richard, I couldn't help think that back home in the Bible-Belt he would be a Democrat... but decided not to alienate him.

It was Richard that guided me to some of these most remarkable people that I met while at the RNC. A majority of the time I spent with Richard was with him shouting and running after passers by who he thought would be good for me to talk to.

Richard is up to his chin in hope for the youth movement to gain traction in the GOP. His connectivity and tenacity are honorable and unbelievable, but his friendliness and hope for his party's future is what brings people to him. Along with his friends and colleagues he hopes to bring the GOP into the new century where the party is more reflective of our country in race, in gender, and in age. It is with this kind of community Richard thinks they can sustain their party.

While I certainly don't agree with them on a lot of issues, if these were the faces of the GOP it would be a lot more difficult for opposition to succeed.

CE and Brett, the co-authors of the new book Why You're Wrong About the Right think, however, that the old white stereotype is not the reality they see when looking at their friends. CE tells me she has a good time, goes out, parties and goes to ball games. She's not an old fuddy duddy like some of the delegates seen on the floor night after night. See the full interview with these two co-authors here.

She is clearly a strong, polished, and well educated young woman who remembers with clarity Bill Clinton's outreach at the MTV/Rock the Vote candidate forum in 1992 where the famous Boxer or Briefs question was asked. CE says the mere outreach by him was a huge step for a politician to make, and she's surprised that there haven't been any republicans since take on similar forms of outreach. The book presents photos and interviews with those who don't fit the traditional appearance of the GOP. Youthful and minority faces shine from the pages as the argument is presented that not everyone is old and white.

The others would say that its just most of them.

Embedded through the links above are the entire interviews of these remarkable young people, and above is my comprehensive clips and soundbites of their comments. Also see my interview with Armstrong Williams, conservative talk radio host about these topics.

At the end of the convention the only thing I can say is that regardless of the party, young people are consistently being ignored this election when our votes are the ones that have made candidates since 2006.

I'm heading out shortly to tape for GritTV with Laura Flanders. We're doing a one-hour panel on the youth vote and a half-hour segment on Youth to Power. Be back online this afternoon.

• At Campus Politico, Ben Adler notes that summer break is putting a crimp in plans to register and organize students.
• At AlterNet, Courtney Martin talks about growing up a Millennial and how race and gender play differently on the campaign trail for younger voters.
• Republicans have a new blog dedicated to reaching "Generation Next" online. It involves crayons.
• Salon notes rising youth turnout, and while they are still skeptical, admit that young voters could be a factor in November.
• Barack Obama has 1 million supporters on Facebook.
• The "American Dream" as our parents knew it is dead, argues Anya Kamenetz, but she's got some suggestions on what a new American Dream might look like. Long live the American Dream!

Joe's got a great video up about Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" - in which he (Rush) encourages Republicans to eff with the Democratic primaries. He also has a good summation of the point I made earlier today about the supposed "race divide" between the Democratic candidates and how that plays out at the generational level.

So I'm finally at Yearly Kos. Sitting around waiting for General Wesley Clark to speak, stewing in my juices and waiting for my panels. I hate public speaking, and yet that's basically all I"m doing today.

The word is that yesterday Howard Dean delivered a keynote address in which he talked about the importance of engaging the youth vote.

Ben Adler from Campus Progress has the goods. I particularly like that last bit. Yay on you for brining up the topic Howard, but not exactly the best way to talk about demographic diversity and tolerance among Millennials:

DNC Chair Howard Dean just gave a rousing address here at Yearly Kos to the 1400 minions and hundreds of members of the media. He focused in large part on the importance of progressives appealing to young people. He noted the 20% increase in youth turnout between the last two midterms and noted that voting patterns get locked in for life at a young age. He admonished activists to always focus on the young as an investment in the future. He also rather comically pointed out that "there are white kids running around malls with pants around their ankles" as evidence that the hopes of the civil rights movement have been achieved. And Dean pointed to the long enduracne of civil rights leaders as a reminder that activism is a lifelong commitment.

The words are a bit indelicate (as Dean is often want to do), but the point is sound, and Republicans are getting scared.