report

The Center for American Progress released a report by Ruy Teixeira this week, "The Coming End of the Culture Wars," in which Teixeira examines the increasing impotence of social and cultural issues in today's political debate.

The report makes a few conclusions that should be familiar to FM readers.

Teixeira views the ongoing millennial boom as one reason for the decline in the social issue's prominence. Given the millennials' socially liberal views on many traditionally contentious social issues, they don't seem particularly "alarmed" when conservative concern trolls warn Americans of the country's leftward shift.

CAP’s Progressive Studies Program’s ideology survey similarly found that 18- to 29-year old Millennials were the most progressive generation by far on a comprehensive 10-item progressive cultural index covering topics ranging from religion, abortion, and homosexuality to race, immigration, and the family. Each item on this index had a 0-10 point range, with the most progressive response on each item receiving 10 points and the most conservative response receiving zero points. Millennials scored 56.6 out of 100 on the index, compared to a range of 46.4 to 52.9 for older generations.

And as more millennials ascend into positions of power and, thus, control the debate, more substantive, quality of life issues will be prevalent, drowning out discussions on issues such as abortion.

Another strong cause for the decreased power of the culture wars is found in demographics.

...The culturally conservative white working class has been declining rapidly as a proportion of the electorate for years. Exit polls show that the proportion of white working-class voters—scoring just 46.3 out of a 100 on the Progressive Studies Program comprehensive 10-item progressive cultural index covering topics ranging from religion, abortion, and homosexuality to race, immigration, and the family—is down 15 points since 1988, while the proportion of far more culturally progressive white college graduate voters (53.3 on the index) is up 4 points, and the proportion of minority voters (54.7 on the index) is up 11 points. State after state since 1988 has replicated this general pattern—a sharp decline in the share of white working-class voters accompanied by increases in the shares of minority voters and, in most cases, of increasingly progressive white college graduate voters.

Along with the decline in white working class voters, the numbers of traditionally progressive portions of the population are on the rise. Single women and professionals headline this group.

It's very important to point out that millennials aren't more progressive due to their increased diversity. Teixeira's report finds that white millennials are more progressive than many of their older siblings and parents.

But it is worth stressing that white Millennials, while not as culturally progressive as their minority counterparts, are still much more progressive than the overall population. Both white college graduate (56.1 on the PSP index) and white working-class Millennials (54.2) are more culturally progressive than older white college-graduate (53.5) and especially white working-class (45.6) adults. The difference between white working-class Millennials and older generations of the white working class is particularly important since it suggests that the white working class as a whole will become significantly less culturally conservative as culturally progressive white working-class Millennials replace conservative older white working-class voters in the electorate. This will severely undercut the popular appeal of culture wars politics, since this segment of the population has provided the bulk of support for such politics.

Teixera concludes by noting that conservatives will most likely continue to inject what they think are divisive issues into the political debate for political gain, though they'll find these efforts to be less successful with time. With the millennials coming into power, the American political dialogue should change for the better thanks to a far more focused discussion of the issues that can drastically improve Americans' quality of life.

Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote (WVWV) released a new survey on voting and civic engagement in the 2008 election (h/t Tom Manatos). The survey looks specifically at the “Rising American Electorate”, defined by those demographics that are increasingly progressive and populous--unmarried women, African American voters, Latino and young voters. These demographics were strong Obama supporters and voters. The survey totals 1,649 interviews, 337 of which are of young voters. While the youth sample size is smaller than other surveys on similar topics (as well as when compared to the over three demographics groups in the survey), it is the most recent survey of its kind to investigate the 2008 election. Let’s begin with some of the big findings on young voters.

• 79 percent support the Stimulus package that was passed by Congress and signed by President Obama
• Only 36 percent rate their personal economic situation as ‘Excellent’ or ‘Good‘
• 77 percent feel that President Obama is speaking directly to them and the issues they care about
• 46 percent reported that they were absolutely certain they would vote in the 2010 election cycle.

The broad support for President Obama and the stimulus package probably stems from the fact that campaign promises were kept about college affordability and green jobs, especially given the fact that two-thirds of young people view their economic situation as ’just fair’ or ’poor’. And just two nights ago, President Obama addressed another issue that has found strong support from young people in other surveys--community service. The proposal, known as the Kennedy-Hatch Serve America Act would help “get the underemployed (primarily young people) working in communities badly hit by the recession”, argue Christopher Gergen and Gregg Vanorek in a Washington Times Op-Ed piece. Peter Levine, on a similar line of reasoning, supports the Kennedy-Hatch Act, too:

The more advantaged half of the young population that attends college receives educational opportunities subsidized by the public. But those who do not continue formal education beyond high school find that almost all government-funded educational programs have age limits of 18 or 21. Working-class youth are basically subsidizing their more advantaged peers' learning opportunities with their tax dollars. Service programs such as YouthBuild, Public Allies, City Year, and the National Civilian Community Corps (among others) help to right this imbalance by offering opportunities to young adults who may not be on the college track.

This survey by WVWV finds that the Rising American Electorate is increasingly progressive, but warns that there are other forces at work to stop the momentum. This is perhaps true for African American and Latino voters who have taken socially conservative stances on some issues, such as gay rights. The Proposition 8 vote in California, which sought to change the state’s constitution to ban gay marriage, was supported by majorities of both African American (70 percent YES) and Latino voters (53 percent YES) of any age. Not so with young voters, who were the only demographic group against the proposition (61 percent NO). More broadly, Millennials are the most progressive cohort in decades, a finding from The Millennial Pendulum, already blogged about by FM co-bloggers Mike and Craig. And then add to all that the parity in political party identity, which favors the Democrats.

An election may have just passed, but 2010 is already on the horizon. The WVWV report finds that young voters are the most likely demographic to “drop-off” their participation rate from the 2008 presidential election to the 2010 cycle, but the report doesn’t reveal the percentage of youth that intend to vote in 2010, regardless of the degree of certainty. Still, it is true that young voters, along with all voters, have lower voter turnout rates in non-Presidential cycles. Young voters did increase their turnout from the 2002 to 2006 midterm elections (PDF), but with the current recession and uncertainty about funding, GOTV and registration efforts will need to be efficient for 2010 in order to keep up the participation level among young voters.