Ruy Teixeira

DemfromCT over at DailyKos has an interesting interview with Ruy Teixeira, an expert on political demographics and a Senior Fellow at both The Century Foundation and Center for American Progress and author of the recently published working paper titled, Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties.

While you should go check it out in its entirety, here are the main points, which should be very familiar to faithful Future Majority readers.

• The Republican base is shrinking. The white, working class vote, a demographic that you hear all the "smart" television personalities talk about, is vanishing before our eyes, notes Teixeira. We heard a lot about this particular voting bloc in the 2008 Democratic primary, especially in the Ohio, Texas, and Mississippi contests. Yet, those states, like everywhere else, are seeing the size of this group diminish.
  

  In Texas, the white working class share is down 17 points, with minorities up 9 points and white college graduates up 7 points. In Ohio the share of white working-class voters fell by 15 points between 1988 and 2008 while white college graduates rose by 8 points and minorities by 6 points. Even a state like Mississippi has seen a huge drop in the white working class vote since 1988 (down 21 points).

• Millennials continue to decidedly identify with the Democratic Party. Though we continue to battle the "conventional wisdom" that youth always become more conservative with time, Teixeria corrects this, pointing to multiple studies that show partisan loyalty increases with age. And why would Millennials be attracted to the GOP anyway? In supporting the oppressive Arizona immigration law, continuing to treat gay people as if they are not human, and acting as if government has no redeeming value, it is almost as if the Republican Party is running away from our generation (you know, like Mark Kirk).
• To continue to build a long-term political advantage while championing good policy, the Democrats need to provide an alternative to Arizona's SB 1070, getting behind comprehensive immigration reform. Polling shows that the Arizona legislation is popular, but so is a description of a fairer comprehensive reform, in which the federal government strengthens border security and investigates employers who knowingly hire undocumented immigrants. These undocumented workers currently living in the United States would be required to register with the federal government, have criminal background checks, pay taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line for U.S. citizenship (84 percent of those supporting the Arizona law support this alternative). For the Democrats to put forth a strong alternative to the GOP-backed position, they would be strengthening their attachments with already friendly Latino voters, and they also would be enhancing their stature as a party that can solve our larger problems.

The writing is on the wall. Despite the gloomy outlook for the midterms at this point, there are quite a few promising long-term trends for the party. Yet, in order for these to mean anything, we must go all out, institutionalizing peer-to-peer registration efforts. Luckily the DNC recently unleashed their voter registration strategy for the midterms, which significantly targets young voters and minority voters, a large chunk of the President's and the Democrats' base.

And while we face some short-term stress in 2010 while looking at some friendly long-term trends, the GOP is in the opposite situation. While the Tea Party continues to drum up conservative resistance to Obama and the Democrats (occasionally attracting attention for racist behavior), they are moving in the wrong direction of where they need to be to have any influence on the Millennial vote in the long-term. With Millennials forming about 40 percent of the electorate (and 44 percent of the generation identifying as a minority) in 2020, they form the anchor of this country's electoral future; meanwhile, the GOP can't seem to break away from the Tea Party, which actively resists a move toward the center.

For further reading, check out Teixeira's white paper (linked above) and read the reviews by Tom Schaller for FiveThirtyEight.com and Ed Kilgore at the Democratic Strategist.

The Center for American Progress released a report by Ruy Teixeira this week, "The Coming End of the Culture Wars," in which Teixeira examines the increasing impotence of social and cultural issues in today's political debate.

The report makes a few conclusions that should be familiar to FM readers.

Teixeira views the ongoing millennial boom as one reason for the decline in the social issue's prominence. Given the millennials' socially liberal views on many traditionally contentious social issues, they don't seem particularly "alarmed" when conservative concern trolls warn Americans of the country's leftward shift.

CAP’s Progressive Studies Program’s ideology survey similarly found that 18- to 29-year old Millennials were the most progressive generation by far on a comprehensive 10-item progressive cultural index covering topics ranging from religion, abortion, and homosexuality to race, immigration, and the family. Each item on this index had a 0-10 point range, with the most progressive response on each item receiving 10 points and the most conservative response receiving zero points. Millennials scored 56.6 out of 100 on the index, compared to a range of 46.4 to 52.9 for older generations.

And as more millennials ascend into positions of power and, thus, control the debate, more substantive, quality of life issues will be prevalent, drowning out discussions on issues such as abortion.

Another strong cause for the decreased power of the culture wars is found in demographics.

...The culturally conservative white working class has been declining rapidly as a proportion of the electorate for years. Exit polls show that the proportion of white working-class voters—scoring just 46.3 out of a 100 on the Progressive Studies Program comprehensive 10-item progressive cultural index covering topics ranging from religion, abortion, and homosexuality to race, immigration, and the family—is down 15 points since 1988, while the proportion of far more culturally progressive white college graduate voters (53.3 on the index) is up 4 points, and the proportion of minority voters (54.7 on the index) is up 11 points. State after state since 1988 has replicated this general pattern—a sharp decline in the share of white working-class voters accompanied by increases in the shares of minority voters and, in most cases, of increasingly progressive white college graduate voters.

Along with the decline in white working class voters, the numbers of traditionally progressive portions of the population are on the rise. Single women and professionals headline this group.

It's very important to point out that millennials aren't more progressive due to their increased diversity. Teixeira's report finds that white millennials are more progressive than many of their older siblings and parents.

But it is worth stressing that white Millennials, while not as culturally progressive as their minority counterparts, are still much more progressive than the overall population. Both white college graduate (56.1 on the PSP index) and white working-class Millennials (54.2) are more culturally progressive than older white college-graduate (53.5) and especially white working-class (45.6) adults. The difference between white working-class Millennials and older generations of the white working class is particularly important since it suggests that the white working class as a whole will become significantly less culturally conservative as culturally progressive white working-class Millennials replace conservative older white working-class voters in the electorate. This will severely undercut the popular appeal of culture wars politics, since this segment of the population has provided the bulk of support for such politics.

Teixera concludes by noting that conservatives will most likely continue to inject what they think are divisive issues into the political debate for political gain, though they'll find these efforts to be less successful with time. With the millennials coming into power, the American political dialogue should change for the better thanks to a far more focused discussion of the issues that can drastically improve Americans' quality of life.

I wanted to make sure readers saw two articles/news stories published this week about Millennials, their political behavior, and the consequences for America's political future.

The first, written by Paul Waldman, appeared at truthout.org and is titled "So Long, Alex P. Keaton." Waldman looks back at the glory days for conservatives, when young people's political attitudes were represented on the silver screen by Alex P. Keaton in the sitcom Family Ties. The show's time on television (1982-1989) coincided with the Republican Party's reign in America; Keaton's admiration of Ronald Reagan was mimicked in thousands of households across the country by young people. Waldman then pivots to the rising Millennials:

Start with the obvious: 67 percent of voters under 29 cast their ballot for Barack Obama, a result unequalled since exit polling began. (If you're interested, exit-poll data dating back to 1976 can be found at the Roper Center.) Despite periodic proclamations that young conservatives are poised for a comeback (see, for instance, this lengthy portrait in The New York Times Magazine only six years ago of the "Young Hipublicans" who were ready to take the country by storm), young people aren't finding much to like about today's GOP. And as a pair of new reports from the Center for American Progress on the present and future of American ideology show, those feelings are likely to run much deeper than a single election or a single candidate.

While they cover a great deal of ground, the reports contain some particularly interesting points about the millennial generation. In "State of American Political Ideology, 2009,", we learn that young people are the most progressive age group overall and the most progressive on social issues, which might not be surprising. But they are also the most progressive age group in their opinions about the role of government, which might be. And as the other report, "New Progressive America," points out, this generation's share of the voting population will increase every year until 2020, when they will represent nearly 40 percent of the electorate.

Meanwhile, J. Patrick Coolican at the Las Vegas Sun looks at the bad news for the GOP found in the Millennial reports, especially Ruy Teixeira's.

His new report for the liberal Center for American Progress serves as a sort of valedictory coda, detailing the new Democratic majority and breaking down the 20-year trend in Nevada and other states.

It’s a striking document and a bracing jolt to Republicans.

The 2008 election was a mirror of 1988, with President Barack Obama winning 53 percent of the vote, matching that of George H.W. Bush. Here’s what happened: During those 20 years, the minority share of the vote increased by 11 percentage points and the white college-educated by 4. The white, working-class portion decreased by 15.

If you’re a Republican, these are “uh-oh” trends.

Other trends seem destined to exacerbate the Republican plight. Obama won the millennials — Americans born between 1978 and 2000 — by 66 percent to 32 percent. This generation is adding 4.5 million voters every year.

This is not breaking news to us. Most of you reading this site know that the GOP is in significant peril and on the edge of becoming irrelevant to young people.

These posts are signs, though, that we're seeing this idea of a new, energized, progressive generation gaining power escaping from the political junkie bubble. In other words, the casual political observer will begin to understand and expect a new political direction for America should this narrative continue to be covered by conventional media.

Why is that important? Well, I agree with those who point out that it doesn't quite matter if our elders are willing to respect us. They point out that we're eventually going to change this country whether they like it or not. At the same time, though, the faster this country accepts the large change that's coming, the more opportunities we might be able to have now instead of tomorrow. Either way, we're headed for a sea change, and these two well-researched and well-written articles hit the nail on the head.

Earlier this week, Generation We, in conjunction with Ruy Teixeira, released an updated survey (pdf) of the attitudes and activities of Millennials in the 2008 election (attached, download at bottom). Covering everything from voting rates to views on the role of government, it reads as a good update to an NPI report that we often quote: The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation.

What sets it apart from most of the analysis of the youth vote that you've read here and elsewhere is that the report, like the book on which it is based, isn't just a primer on youth participation. It's a generational analysis that is concerned with the political power of Millennials now, as they enter the electorate in significant numbers, as well as 10, 20, and 30 years from now, when Millennials will comprise a plurality of the electorate. You should read it (pdf) and bookmark it. It's a great reference guide if you don't want to sort through 6 different data sets looking for information on Millennials.

During their press briefing to release the report, one of the more interesting topics of discussion focused on cohort replacement - the impact that the Millennials will have as they age into the electorate and older, more conservative demographics age out (Read: die).

The voting inclinations of the Millennials, hugely important in this election, could become even more so over time. If Millennials remain oriented as they are and maintain the generational consistency they have shown so far, the simple process of cohort replacement—more Millennials moving into the electorate and taking the place of older voters—will increase the Democrats’ margin over the GOP by an additional two and a half percentage points in 2012 and then by another two and a half points in 2016. That’s quite a shift.

And that shift will definitely be toward the Democrats and the relatively progressive politics they represent, not just toward Obama. In 2008, the 66-32 margin for Obama among 18-29 year olds was not far off the 63-34 margin for House Democrats among this age group. Even more important, party identification among 18-29 year olds, according to data released by the Pew Research Center right before the election, has been running 29 points pro-Democratic (61-32), an absolutely stunning figure. Party identification is the single strongest predictor of how people vote and tends to stick with individuals once they form an attachment early in their political lives. It appears that the Democrats in particular and progressive politics in general will be reaping the benefits of Millennials’ strong political leanings for many years to come.

This is very encouraging, but I just want to issue a word of caution. As a number of panelists mentioned at the press briefing, this swing towards the Democrats didn't come out of nowhere and the progressive politics of Millennials is not fait accompli. It was greatly assisted by the work of the Obama campaign and independent youth organizations reaching out to young people and including them in the process.

As Al Acker, President of the Young Democrats, noted during the panel, youth groups had far less support this year than in previous years. And Obama's campaign is just that - a campaign. We don't know how or if it will translate into a permanent piece of infrastructure. Out of all the state parties in the country, only one - Ohio - had anything even resembling a strong youth outreach component. The party committees (DSCC, DCCC) are still not sold on the idea of youth outreach as a part of their work vital to the long term health of the party. All this as word comes down that the 50 State Strategy, another vital piece of progressive infrastructure focused on making long term gains for the party, may not survive beyond this election cycle.

As the chart in the sidebar shows, Republicans had the youth vote during the Reagan years and they lost it as they stopped reaching out and talking to young voters. Right now the youngest Millennials are very young. Young enough that Obama's historic election will be a permanent fact of life to them, as natural as computers and cell phones are to those growing up in the last ten years. There's no guarantee that what we did this year will move them to support Democrats or even Progressives without continued investment in outreach - anymore than the youngest of Obama's supporters this year were moved by us "old-hands" pining about the Dean days