superdelegates

• PBS did a huge segment on the youth vote with Heather Smith of Rock the Vote, Sujatha Jahagirdar of PIRG, and three students each supporting one of the remaining candidates. For my money, Sujatha had the best line in the piece:
  
  But the real story here is that young people have been turning out for many election cycles. In fact, in 2004, youth turnout increased by more than 11 percent, which was almost triple the increase we saw in the general population.

  So what we hope we see this election cycle is the permanent death of the notion that young people don't vote and young people don't matter. - PBS

• The National Campus Voter Registration Project has launched Your Vote, Your Voice, a project to help students register their peers on campus. - Chronicle of Higher Education
• Scotty McClellan's new book is the talk of the town and everyone has blogged it today. For my money, Glenn Greenwald has the best take in this post which skewers the media reaction. - Salon
• All three remaining candidates have joined forces to release a (toothless) statement about Darfur. - TPM Election Central
• Clinton backers plan to protest at the game-deciding Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday. - Washington Post
• With less than one week to go, Obama appears to be "banking" super delegates for a big announcement. - Political Wire
• Whatever happened to the Jena 6? - AlterNet
• The VA continues to downplay the seriousness of PTSD. - Vet Voice
• Declare Yourself has released a book in which celebrities discuss why they will vote. Not too sure how I feel about this. Seems a little silly and superficial, but if it sells copies and convinces people to go to the polls then yay on them. - Declare Yourself
• The latest craze at Oberlin College? Competitive sustainable living. - New York Times
• GRITtv interviews a soldier who was stop-lossed. - FireDogLake

So how much is the youth vote worth this year? Apparently $500,000 a pop if you are a superdelegate.

The Huffington Post is running a shocker of a piece claiming that Clinton donor Haim Saban offered the Young Democrats of America access to $1 million in funds if their two remaining superdelegates - David Hardt and Crystal Strait - endorsed Sen. Clinton:

One of Sen. Hillary Clinton's top financial supporters offered $1 million to the Young Democrats of America during a phone conversation in which he also pressed for the organization's two uncommitted superdelegates to endorse the New York Democrat, a high-ranking official with YDA told The Huffington Post.

Haim Saban, the billionaire entertainment magnate and longtime Clinton supporter, denied the allegation. But four independent sources said that just before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Saban called YDA President David Hardt and offered what was perceived as a lucrative proposal: $1 million would be made available for the group if Hardt and the organization's other uncommitted superdelegate backed Clinton.

YDA isn't answering anymore questions about this incident on the record, but if this is true, all I can say is "good for the Young Democrats!" for turning the offer down. At a time when Sen. Obama's campaign is threatening to defund 527 organizations (YDA is a 527), and many progressive youth organizations still struggle to raise their yearly budgets, YDA's leadership, this could not have been an easy choice for YDA leaders. $1 million is a substantial portion of YDA's yearly budget. This was the ultimate Faustian bargain dangled in front of them and they turned it down. They made the ethical choice to forgo what might be best for themselves politically and faithfully represent the will of their constituents in the nominating process.

It was even braver considering the potential fallout from other donors close to Saban:

Members of the Young Democrats agonized about the potential fallout of Saban's call; his financial offer represented one-third of the group's 2008 budget. Democratic officials and fundraisers were consulted about how to respond, and at times the discussions were "emotional," one participant said. "It is scary for them, Haim is very powerful, he has great influence over donors who give to them."

Another source said that Hardt and others were acutely aware of Saban's status within Democratic circles and were concerned that their organization would suffer long-term harm if they declined his offer or if news of the proposal became public.

It's a rather unfortunate dynamic in progressive politics that such donors have so much influence over the process, but that's how it works. Usually it's not even accurate to talk of donors, but rather "donor networks." If you piss-off the wrong donor, their network can be closed to you forever. So it was a gutsy move for YDA to snub a major donor like that. But I'm convinced it was the right move. Taking that money would have been disastrous for YDA in a number of ways -- not least in that endorsing Sen. Clinton over Obama would put the YDA leadership totally out of touch from the will of the surging youth vote, the very people they are supposed to represent. In terms of organizational branding and PR, it would most likely be taken as indicative of an organizational culture in which the leadership worked to protect and further their own political advancement at the expense of the membership. If YDA had taken the deal, those observations would have been right. Kudos to them for doing the right thing.

So where do YDA endorsements stand? Last week, Crystal Strait endorsed Sen. Obama. Her counterpart, Francisco Domenech, endorsed Clinton months ago. David Hardt, the President of YDA, and the person to whom the offer was allegedly made, has yet to endorse a candidate. Last week he released a statement indicating that he would wait until all votes were cast before making his endorsement.

By the by, this is yet another reason why I think my arguments for more transparency, and some basic guidelines, in how YDA and CDA superdelegates cast their ballots are called for and indeed long overdue.

David Hardt, President of YDA and the only YDA/CDA superdelegate to not yet endorse a candidate just released a statement:

STATEMENT BY SUPERDELEGATE DAVID HARDT, PRESIDENT OF THE YOUNG DEMOCRATS OF AMERICA

"We have seen unprecedented turnout among young voters this election cycle. A true Young Voter Revolution is underfoot. Nearly six million young people have participated in our primary process thus far. With just five contests left, I will wait to declare my superdelegate vote until every young voter has made their voice heard. The Young Democrats of America will proudly unite behind our nominee."

The Young Democrats of America (YDA) is the nation’s largest youth-led, partisan political organization with over 2,000 chapters in all 50 states.

The two superdelegates from the College Democrats of America - Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel - have endorsed Obama. This comes at the end of a long process in which they posted a YouTube video asking for advice from college students, were lobbied heavily by Obama surrogates, their fellow young superdelegates, and Students for Barack Obama. It also comes on the heels of criticism for lagging in their endorsement.

There are 5 superdelegates allocated in total to YDA and CDA. Lauren and Awais's endorsements put the tally at 3 - 1 in favor of Obama. Still to endorse: YDA President David Hardt.

Update: According to CNN, Crystal's endorsement ties the race for Superdelegates among Clinton and Obama. It would be great if the other YDA or CDA super delegates could be the ones to tip the balance in Obama's favor.

Hint, hint . . . .
-------------------------------------

Crystal Strait, the woman representative of YDA at the DNC - aka one of YDA's three superdelegates - has endorsed Sen. Obama. This press release just hit my inbox:

CALIFORNIA SUPERDELEGATE PLEDGES TO BARACK OBAMA

Young Democrats of America DNC Member Cites Obama's Ability to Bring Young People into the Process

CHICAGO, IL - Today, Young Democrats of America Board Member and Former California Young Democrats President Crystal Strait pledged to vote for Barack Obama for president. Strait is a superdelegate and Democratic National Committee Member from California. Strait is the 276th superdelegate to endorse Obama. Obama is 155 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

Strait said, "While representing the Young Democrats of America at the DNC, my number one priority is to ensure that young people are fully represented at the polls and in the Party. Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his campaign and in response young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for Obama in these primary contests. We know that if a young person votes three times in a row for a Party, they become a Party voter for life. We know that because of high youth turnout in 2004 and 2006, 2008 is the third and critical election for young voters. And that's why I know I want to pledge my delegate vote to Barack Obama."

###

The Young and College Democrats have 5 combined super delegate votes. So far the count stands at 1 and 1. Francisco Domenech, Crystal Strait's male counterpart at the DNC, declared his support for Sen. Clinton months ago.

Still to endorse: David Hardt, the President of YDA and both delegates from the College Democrats: Lauren Wolfe, the President of CDA, and Awais Khaleel, CDA's VP. Wolfe and Khaleel have posted a YouTube video asking young people how they should cast their ballots.

Students for Barack Obama is stepping up their lobbying campaign for super delegates representing young voters to support Sen. Obama's candidacy:

STUDENTS FOR BARACK OBAMA CALL ON SUPERDELEGATES WHO REPRESENT THE YOUTH VOTE TO COMMIT TO SUPPORTING BARACK OBAMA

Obama has overwhelmingly won the youth vote in the primary contests

WASHINGTON, DC -- After Barack Obama's big victory in North Carolina and close finish in Indiana left no doubt that he is on the path to securing the Democratic nomination, Students for Barack Obama today called on the superdelegates who represent young voters to certify the youth vote by publically committing to support Obama at the convention.

"Barack Obama has inspired students and young voters across the country to mobilize in historic numbers behind his candidacy," said Meredith Segal, National Director of Students for Barack Obama. "Barack has won the most contests, the most pledged delegates, and the most votes – his path to the nomination is clear, and his victory is imminent. He is the candidate who has empowered our generation and the one who embodies our ideals. It is time for the leaders of the College Democrats of America and the Young Democrats of America who are superdelegates to certify the will of young voters across the country by uniting behind Barack Obama. David Hardt, Crystal Strait, Awais Khalil, and Lauren Wolfe should publically commit this week to voting for Barack Obama at the Democratic National Convention in Denver."

In contests where demographic data are available, Obama has won an average of 62% of the youth vote compared to Clinton's 34%. He won the youth vote in every contest except for Arkansas and Massachusetts, where he lost by 1%. In this week's contests, Obama won the youth vote in North Carolina by 49% and in Indiana by 22%.

Not listed is Francisco Domenech, the third representative for the Young Democrats of America. According to DemConWatch, Domenech has already declared support or Hillary.

It's an interesting situation, and I've already outlined my take on how super delegates representing young voters should cast their super ballots. As we reported previously, Lauren and Awais, the two representatives from the College Democrats, have put out a YouTube video asking young people for advice on who to support. SFBO makes a compelling case why Obama should be their candidate.

Ok, so the title is tongue-in-cheek, but there are some interesting goings-on among the younger superdelegates. Jason Rae, co-chair of the DNC Youth Council, youngest superdelegate, and Obama supporter is asking Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel, the two superdelegates representing the College Democrats, to declare their support for Sen. Obama:

From the SFBO blog:

Awais and Lauren—

I wanted to take a minute as both your friend and a fellow super delegate and encourage you to endorse Senator Barack Obama. I know that you have been hesitant because of your role within the College Democrats of America, but as you well know, Senator Obama has emerged to speak to and speak for our generation. He is the voice of this generation.

I appreciate and respect the efforts you have made to make sure you are representing the millions of college students involved in the Democratic Party through your YouTube video. However, I think you need to make your choice known now. I firmly agree with DNC Chairman Howard Dean that it all of the remaining superdelegates need to make their candidate preference known. We need to come together as a party and go forward to November united behind a candidate. We need to stop fighting with each other and take the fight to the Republicans. We need to fight for health care for all Americans. We need to fight for an improved K-12 education system. We need to fight to make college affordable for all who want to pursue a degree. We need to fight to give a voice to the voiceless and hope to the hopeless.

This letter would not be complete if I did not encourage you to support Senator Obama. After being lobbied heavily by both campaigns because of my role as the youngest superdelegate, I endorsed the Senator in February. I encourage you to do the same. He has done more to draw new voters into the process than I have seen of any candidate. I believe he can keep them engaged through November and through his eight years in office. He has truly brought out a new generation of loyal and dedicated activists. Youth turnout in the Democratic primary has doubled or even tripled in most primary and caucus states. Not only that, but young people are overwhelmingly supporting him. In Wisconsin alone, Senator Obama received 73% of the votes of 18-to-24 year old. This is similar in states all across the country. Our generation is speaking clearly and loudly in support of Senator Obama.

I sincerely hope you will consider endorsing Senator Obama and doing it soon. If we unite behind a banner of hope and change, we can take back the White House and resume our position as the leaders of the free world. We can mend damaged relationships abroad and return our focus to those who need our help here at home. It's time to stand up.

Sincerely,

Jason Rae

Lauren Wolfe, the President of the College Democrats, and Awais Khaleel, CDA's Vice President, are two of the youngest Super Delegates who will decide this nomination. They're asking for your advice on how to cast their ballots:

It's unscientific, and I tend to think that the voting preferences shown by young people at the polls will give them a better indication as to how their constituents would prefer they cast their "super ballots," but this is an attempt at bringing transparency to the process that should be commended.

More cynical people might also say that it's not a bad way to list-build for the College Democrats.

Jason Rae, co-chair of the DNC Youth Council and the youngest Super Delegate was kind enough to let the Daily Show lampoon him earlier this week. He's a good sport about it.

Over at MTV I explore the question of young Superdelegates and if they are following the trends of the 2008 youth vote.

Read the full post here: www.chooseorlose.com

There is a lot of talk about young voter turnout and about Superdelegates these days. Young people have emerged as a critical bloc of voters. The media, candidates and many naysayers of the youth vote are finally giving them and the issues they care about attention on the campaign trail.

It got me thinking—are the young Superdelegates following the trends of young voters and how much has the youth vote increased this year?*

I decided to take a look at all the primary and caucus states that have voted so far in order to get a good sense as to the young voter trends—increase in turnout, preference of candidate, preference of Party—and then compare that to the Superdelegates under 36 that have come out as “pledged” to a certain candidate.

Trends of Party Preference: The Shift to Democrats

Young people are overwhelmingly going for Democrats this election cycle, following a trend since 2000. Mike Connery, a blogger over at Future Majority, put together this nifty graphic that shows the growing Democratic advantage among young people.

As you can see, already in 2008, young people are voting 65% for Democrats and only 34% for Republicans (it’s actually up to 68% now since a few more states have come in after Mike created this graph as you will see later in this post).

Democrats have a 31% vote advantage headed into the Presidential elections not to mention all the down ballot races for Senate, House of Representative, Mayor, etc. this will affect.

While this is great news for the Democrats, it is not so good news for Republicans. But--and a big but at that--Democrats should be forewarned. Republicans had the youth vote during the Reagan years. Almost 60% of the young people then voted for Republicans and continued to vote for Republicans as a bloc of voters.

However, Republicans stopped talking to future groups of young people and it shows now in their numbers. If Democrats want a lasting majority, they need to continue targeted programs at young people or risk losing a big chunk of the electorate in the future. While young people make up about 21% of the electorate now, they will be 30% of the electorate by 2012 and that is a bloc of voters that can very easily swing elections.

State by State Breakdown: Over 4 Million Strong and Growing

Across the board young people have increased their votes in almost every state except in NY there was no increase. The average number of young people voting in a state in 2004 was 46,373. The average in this election cycle is 174,646. That is more than tripling the number of votes cast for 18-29 year olds. This is remarkable since many youth voting experts could have predicted a 15-20% jump, but no one predicted a 200% plus jump.

Read the full post here: www.chooseorlose.com

Jane Fleming Kleeb is the Executive Director of the Young Voter PAC which helps Democratic candidates and State Parties win with the 18-35 year-old vote through endorsements, on-the-ground support, training, strategy and money. She is a regular on Fox and is part of MTV’s Street Team ‘08 representing Nebraska.