The Tipping Point

Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point describes how certain movements and trends are similar to epidemics, and that at a certain moment the "Tipping Point" is reached, leading to a dramatic increase or decrease.

The youth vote has been increasing gradually for the last few elections, yet has taken off this year in 2008.While many believe this election will be a statistical outlier for youth voting, caused by one candidate or another, I believe that the all the factors came together for the youth vote to tip.

The early youth voting movements were overwhelmingly based on non-partisan voter registration. While many were successful in registering new voters, they were not nearly as successful in actually getting those new registrants out to vote. This is mostly because of the need to remain non-partisan. The act of voting was marketed as just something they should do. Telling a group of potential voters that it doesn't matter who you voter for, just as long as you vote, doesn't do much to convince them of the importance of their action. If it doesn't matter who I vote for, why does it matter that I vote?

However ineffective the registration-based movements seemed at the time, the work they did made the efforts of partisan-based organizations possible. These partisan organizations were using voter-files to find new registrants and low efficacy young voters. All those people that the non-partisan organizations registered are now much easier to find and contact. Now we have reached the point that the non-partisan registration groups are finding and registering potential voters, and the partisan organizations take that information to get those people to actually vote. The strength of the partisan organization is that they actually have a "product" to sell: their Party and candidates. The message is now that their vote matters in electing those candidates that will make their lives better, and that their votes will be the margin of victory. That's much more appealing, isn't it? This is what Gladwell calls "The Stickiness Factor." The message sticks with you and is therefore much more effective. Though this may not seem that big of a deal, "there are relatively simple changes in the presentation and structuring of information that can make a big difference in how much of an impact it makes."

Gladwell argues that groups play a critical role in social epidemics and that the "spread of any new and contagious ideology also has a lot to do with the skillful use of group power." The example he uses is that of John Wesley, the founder of the Methodist church. Wesley traveled the country and "stayed long enough in each town to form the most enthusiastic of his converts into religious societies." Chapter-based partisan organizations, such as the Young Democrats of America and College Democrats of America, have used the same model. (I will be using the Young Democrats of America as my example not to discount other such organizations but because my personal experience is with that organization).

The Young Democrats of America (YDA) is a chapter-based organization, with state chapters and local chapters. As YDA became stronger it developed State Partnership Programs, ranging from full-time state executive directors to campaign programs. One of the main goals of these programs is to build membership in existing chapters and develop new ones. These become the equivalent of Wesley's town religious societies. According to Gladwell:

Wesley realized that if you wanted to bring about a fundamental change in people's belief and behavior, a change that would persist and serve as an example to others, you needed to create a community around them, where those new beliefs could be practiced and expressed and nurtured.

YDA's Partnership Programs were creating these communities throughout the country, in areas that were previously too difficult for youth organizations to reach. For many that had not yet been engaged, politics has become a social experience. These groups also allow the movement to grow geometrically, as new groups and members lead to more new groups and members.

The prominence of social networks broke down many of the barriers that made it difficult to contact, communicate with, or organize potential young voters. Clay Shirky's Here Comes Everybody really goes into this in depth. In essence the widespread use of social networks have created an environment in which it is possible for the youth vote epidemic to catch on, and "the highly motivated people can create a context more easily in which the barely motivated people can be effective without having to become activists themselves."

Finally, the media coverage and excitement about the 2008 Presidential election has been a motivator for actually getting involved and taking action, another aspect of the environment that has allowed the youth vote to tip.

I believe that these factors helped the youth vote reach its tipping point. The increases over the previous elections continued to grow geometrically, and now seems to have burst. The increased focus on chapter-building by partisan organizations like YDA, the change in message from 'vote for anyone' to 'vote Democrat,' and the environment created by social networks and the 2008 Presidential candidates allowed the youth vote epidemic to tip. By continuing to innovate and use the strategies that have brought the movement to this point, I believe that we will maintain these levels of youth involvement in the following elections.