The Youth Vote

In the Wall Street Journal today, reporter Sarah Murray mangles the data from a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC/MySpace poll to produce an article that casts doubt on the engagement of young voters without any regard for recent trends in youth voting: New Voters Back Obama, Turnout Unsure. This is the second time in less than a month that she has done so in the pages of The Journal.

There are a number of problems with Murray's analysis. Most importantly, Murray over-represents the number of youth respondents in the poll, and then uses a deck stacked with older, "lapsed" voters to cast doubt on youth turnout next week.

Here's Murray over-representing young voter respondents in the poll data:

Three-quarters of those surveyed are young voters registering for the first time, and Sen. Obama has been working to mobilize such voters since his primary fight against Sen. Hillary Clinton.

This is demonstrably not true. Here is the demographic make-up of the poll by age:

Age Group	% Respondents
18-20	31
21-24	16
25-29	8
30-34	8
35-39	9
40-44	5
45-49	4
50-54	6
55-59	2
60-64	4
65-69	3
70-74	2
75 and over	2

Looking at this data, only 56 percent of the poll respondents are under 30 years of age, 19 points shy of "three quarters." In fact, the youngest "three quarters" of poll respondents would range in age from 18 to their low 40s. That may fly in the Republican Party, but common sense should tell you that a 40 year old is no longer a 'young voter' by any reasonable standard.

The implication throughout Murray's article, though, is that "Obama's youth supporters may not show up:"

There still are warning signs, however, that new voters -- traditionally difficult to get to the polls on Election Day -- could be unreliable. Just 66% of those voters said they would definitely vote this year, compared with 90% of registered voters overall. Additionally, only six in 10 said they were very interested in the election, compared with eight in 10 of the larger electorate. [...]

"The challenge now for the Obama campaign is not one of persuasion," said Mr. Newhouse, the Republican pollster. "The challenge to the Obama campaign is what we call stimulus; it's getting them out to vote."

Bottom line? This is the same "youth don't vote" story we've heard for years dressed up with "new voters" as a euphemism for "young voters." The data is stacked with information from hundreds of respondents that could in no way be considered young voters, and Murray's reporting does not take into account any recent youth vote trends in its reporting to provide context for their findings.

Here's what we know that didn't make it into Murray's story:

• We know that youth turnout rose in 2004, rose again in 2006, and was double, triple, and in some states quadruple previous turnout during the primaries.
• We know that Senator Obama and independent youth organizations have worked tirelessly to register new, young voters this cycle.
• Most importantly, we know that when young people are registered to vote, they turnout in numbers that are comparable to older registered voters. In 2004, 81.6% of all registered youth actually cast their ballot.

No one knows what youth turnout will look like until the polls are closed on election day, but all the trends are highly favorable. It's disappointing to see the Wall Street Journal continue to misread their own, uncontextualized data to cast doubts on the intentions of young voters.

I'm cutting & pasting, with a little editing, an entry I wrote a few weeks ago about the youth vote during both the Democratic Primaries & the general election cycle (which, of course, is still going on) ... It's all pretty self-explanatory:

Generational Tectonics

Young people did not trust Hillary Clinton, & by huge numbers did not vote for her. Young people do not trust John McCain, & by huge numbers will not vote of McCain in November. (Or, rather, Hillary Clinton could not relate to young people. & she lost. John McCain will not be able to relate to young voters, & will lose in November.)

On the other hand, young people overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama in the Democratic Primaries & Caucuses, & will stick with him through the general elections. That was the conclusion of a study conducted by Harvard's Institute of Politics, the findings of which were organization published in April of this year. The IOP's conclusion is as follows:

"A new national poll by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at Harvard Kennedy School, finds 18-24 year-olds who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in November strongly prefer U.S. Senator Barack Obama over U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (70% to 30%) to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. The poll also finds a majority of likely young voters favor Obama (53%) in a hypothetical head-to-head contest against U.S. Senator John McCain (32%) but give Clinton a much smaller lead (44% to 39%) when matched up against the Arizona Senator."

I think there are a lot of good reasons for this trend, which I started to lay out here & I would like to finish, you know, laying out. (I will say that when I'm discussing "young voters", or "people my age", or "young people", I speaking of people, roughly, 18 to 32 years old - basically people who remember when MTV still showed music videos.)

First, Barack Obama is the youngest of the viable candidates, & at 46, he is also the first non-"Baby Boomer" candidate since that generation was named. He is also very handsome. Now, these facts do not mean that young voters are automatically going to think he is authentic, or truly able to understand our generations concerns & values. But this generational proximity is definitely a bonus, even for superficial reasons.

The second reason for Barack's strength with young voters is his authenticity. It is ironic that in a campaign that is built on so much calculation - where every speech, event, announcement is calculated for effect, to counter a narrative or effect us on an emotional level as well as a, well, political level - Obama's appeal to young voters lies in the fact that, at least when it comes to acting like one of us, he is actually not acting. Candid moments like the fist-bump, especially, but also, when he would joke around with Clinton & Edwards in the debates, or when he's riding his bike, or hosting a slumber-party for his daughters, or playing basketball, or discussing how he just paid off his student loans, are incredibly telling about Barack's personality, and bespeaks authenticity to young, hip people who would certainly would know better, & can spot a fake a mile away.

Thirdly, Obama is not a member of the "Baby Boomer" generation, who people in my generation look at with contempt & blame for many of the messes we're in right now. Young people perceive that the "Baby Boomers" were the generation that were given so much, & gave back so little - who, for instance, were the authors of the the egomaniacal decadence of the 1960s & 70s, as well as the fiscal & moral irresponsibility of the 1980s - whose greatest legacies will probably be the Iraq War, the deficit & the national debt, the burdens of which will be shouldered by my generation, my children's generation, & beyond.

Fourth, Barack Obama has spawned a cottage industry of apparel, both from his campaign & the Democratic Party, & from people how want to cash in on his youth appeal. Kids would not be buying his face or name on a shirt unless there was a great deal of support for him, & this is compelling evidence that Barack is seen as cool or hip. This is beyond campaign buttons, or the standard issue campaign logo shirt - these shirts straight up look hot. This may seem laughable, but it also means McCain will not be able to cash-in on this sort of phenomenon because it would (1) look like he was plagiarizing Obama's market, & (2) John McCain is unbrandable vis-á-vis youth culture - it would simply be a hilarious failure.

I have never seen or supported a candidate that I felt understood my experiences, & also shared my interests ... until now. I think this is universal but most young people feel dismissed & misunderstood by the "hegemonic" generation of their day - it's just nice to see someone speaking to my interests without pandering, or being phony, or someone who's just too damn old to understand why the issues that matter the most to me do or how the internet works.

You can find the original post, along with my non-political writing at:

http://geoffreymgolia.blogspot.com

I promise I'll have more original stuff here, well, maybe tomorrow.