Young Republicans

We've spent the last two months bringing you the astounding outreach efforts by Republicans that have been aimed at pealing off the President's strength with young voters.

It began with some guy named Ted Nugent and has continued with upper level Republican operatives like Karl Rove. Mitt Romney even released a web ad last week hitting the President on youth unemployment numbers and imploring Millennials to take a look elsewhere when deciding their vote this election season.

But this week Fox News tells us in an Op-Ed that America's Youth Have Lost Hope and Are Looking For Change. Heh heh... I see what you did there with the hope and change....

The National Review writes about Obama’s Young Ex-Fans.

"Young voters in 2008 were attracted to Obama as a symbol — no one knew exactly what he stood for, but voting for him sure did feel good. Nearly three years later, many of them are increasingly disgusted to learn that he apparently doesn’t stand for much. What’s his position again on gay marriage? On Afghanistan? On Iraq? Health care? The skyrocketing debt? They care little about having a symbolic leader when they can’t find jobs. The Hope and Change he promised have long since become a punch line."

While she's correct to say that young people are feeling a bit disgruntled right now about the President I can promise you it has nothing to do with issues like gay marriage, Afghanistan, Iraq, and health care... and maybe this is the only hope for Democrats to save the youth vote for that key "three elections in a row" gain.

The most successful advocacy community among progressives has been the LGBT community. I don't know if it has to do with campaign donors or there being a lot of LGBT staffers in the White House or if its because if there's one thing the terrorists hate more than Americans its gay Americans - but the White House has actually done OK when it comes to the DOJ saying they won't go after DOMA issues, repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell and being all equal opportunity. While there is a lot more to do - like take care of Dan Choi and all of the other soldiers discharged under DADT and repeal DOMA and other things... when it comes to LGBT issues we are further along than we would have been under John McCain and further along than we will be under any republican president.

As for the others - we're drawing down in Afghanistan, we've almost pulled out entirely in Iraq and the one shining thing the White House has done for young people was ensure the health care reform bill allowed young people to stay on their parents insurance plans longer despite the GOP opposing it and Republican Governors supporting Constitutional Amendments banning the law that gives them this access to health care.

So, I'm not sure those would be the issues the GOP should really speak to young people about ... because young voters will just laugh at you.

Portfolio.com quotes this article and the WSJ piece where Margaret Hoover is pimping her new book about Millennial Voters asking - Who Will Millennial Voters Back in 2012?

The piece cites where the President had success but where that advantage has turned into an uphill climb for connecting with young people in 2012:

Both authors make a compelling point about the potential among the under-30 set for dissatisfaction with Obama. This is a group that voted for the Democrat by a 2-1 margin over John McCain in 2008. The problem, of course, is the economy and the continuing awful employment outlook. Recent reports find that nearly one in five college graduates is out of work and that more than 17 percent of 16-to-24-year-olds who want jobs can't find them.

Ignore the rest of that article because quite honestly it cites research done from republican firms and republican polls and I'm not sure that's the most valid of data. I invite you to check out something that is a little more non-partisan from a non-profit organizations.....

Washington Examiner is back! This time not with an op-ed from Ted but one that says that Under Obama, Millennials move into the GOP column.

"The Democratic party identification edge has been reduced to 47 to 43 percent. That's a 4-point drop for Democrats and a 4-point rise for Republicans since 2008. . . . .But the 2010 numbers yielded a 52 to 45 percent Republican lead in the popular vote for the House."

It then cites a number that is questionable that focuses on young white voters who they say are fleeing the President. According to the Pew numbers that are an accumulation of several different polls taken since the 2008 election:

"In 2008 they were 51 to 40 percent Republican. In the first half of 2011 they were 56 to 35 percent Republican -- more Republican than Southern whites were three years ago."

When some in the youth movement discussed these numbers last week Morley Winograd and Mike Hais co-authors of Millennial Makeover commented that there has indeed been some up and down movement over that time period in Millennial loyalties, and Millennial identification with Democrats is down since 2008. The decline, however, is entirely registered among whites. Among African-Americans and Hispanics there has been no change. Loyalists are standing firm in their support of the President, but part time participants, if they are white, are losing some of their positive feelings toward Democrats and Obama. Like any other coalition, you do need to work it to have it vote for you, and I would add, obviously continue to vote for you, and that's where the President has had problems - particularly prior to the campaign starting again.

President Obama actually admitted this himself last week at the University of Maryland town hall when a young woman asked him where he felt he should have done better over the course of his Presidency. He said that he should have done a better job taking his case to Americans and asking for their support.

Specifically, when it comes to young voters, this was the ONLY demographic that supported the President on the health care reform battle. And the ONLY demographic that continued to support him on HCR. This would have been a great opportunity for the White House to bring in young people to be leaders and advocates to explain why HCR was important. Children, teens, and 20 year olds talking about their health struggles to their parents and grandparents is a great way to squelch the opposition. And politically it looks a heck of a lot better on TV than a bunch of angry old tea baggers. But the youth community wasn't brought in on substantiate policy discussions until the re-elect began.

The last GOP piece about young voters is yet another book review for Margaret Hoover - read more on refuting her claims that young people will join the Tea Party any day now. Hey Margaret... not gonna happen. The GOP might get some young people to buy into the more moderate wing of the party but the Tea Party is never going to see a 60%+ voting spread from young voters the way the President did in 2008. They're way too socially liberal and they actually believe that the government is a tool that can be used to do good.

This week's DailyKos/Research 2000 poll examined beliefs and political philosophies of republican voters. Nate Silver from 538 has an interesting take on it:

"This accounts for what might be the Republicans' greatest strength as we head into the November midterms as well as their greatest liability. The strength is that they can somewhat comfortably adopt a nationalized, one-size-fits-all message. They don't have to worry about the constellation of constituencies that Democrats have: labor voters, Baby-boomer liberals, blacks, Hispanics, college-educated technocrats, libertarianish younger voters, etc. Their base is the same pretty much everywhere, and actuating a strategy that appeals to that base is not challenging.

The liability, meanwhile, is that while the Republican base might be the same pretty much everywhere, the rest of the electorate isn't. Some states and districts have different ratios of Republicans to Democratic and independent voters. Moreover, they have different types of Democratic and independent voters, some of whom may be amenable to the Republican message and others of whom won't be."

Notable graphs where 18-29 year old voters differed the most from other age demographics:

This week NPR also did a report about young voters and the Teabagger movement.

"Mr. JORDAN MARKS (Executive Director, Americans for Freedom): I personally went and interviewed young Democrats that had spent a lot of time on his campaign to figure out what they had done differently.

GONYEA: But beyond the Internet, conservatives say their basic message is now getting more traction. As president, Barack Obama now has a record and conservatives say theres reason for young voters to start to scrutinize what hes accomplished.

Twenty-six-year-old Ashley Sewell of the group Smart Girl Politics says recent college graduates are facing a brutal job market. She says 20-somethigns are worried and that provides an opening.

Ms. ASHLEY SEWELL (Smart Girl Politics): I think so, primarily because the conservative movement has really started to gain some traction. And I think that were starting to gain some legitimacy in the conversation.

GONYEA: Professor Peter Levine runs a nonpartisan program at Tufts University specializing in politics and young people.

Professor PETER LEVINE (Director, CIRCLE; Civic Studies, Tufts University): So I don't think the fact that they would be enthusiastic about Barack Obama in 2008 would guarantee that they would continue to feel that way. Theyre faced with a lot of things, including a very high unemployment rate. And it would be easy for them to change their mind about the effectiveness of government. "

Gonyea goes on to say that Levine describes young voters as being more liberal than the US as a whole and when conservatives spend too much time on issues like gay marriage it works against them.

This... is genius... Totally genius. The best part is that the liberal monster doesn't want to kill Megahan McCain because she's smart and nice and not an evil republican because she thinks young people are important. Well that part and the laughing monkey Ann Coulter in the corner.

Our good friend Al found this video we had missed where the (then) potential RNC chairs were talking about how they would reach out to young people. Its pretty fun:

Bloguette Meghan McCain had an interesting article in the Daily Beast yesterday that addresses the techless nature of the GOP.

During the campaign season the only youth outreach I could find coming out of the McCain campaign was Meghan and her friends that traveled with the campaign and reported on the goings on.

Since this seems to be the week of children of the GOP coming out to tell all it is fitting Meghan wanted to talk about her experience as well. She says that the whole idea of the blog and project about being on the trail "was met with confusion and resistance" to begin with. "A few people even asked me what's a blog."

For the record, what you're reading right now.... is a blog.

She also said that she got the idea that people thought she was wasting her time, "The Republican party isn't exactly Internet savvy," she says.

I would argue that there are many people in the GOP that are very tech savvy. The College Republicans developed a nice little social network site that no one really uses, if you're a frequent reader of FM you know we know all about that site. And there are a hand full of remarkable tech savvy guys (sadly they're all men) who do some good work for a party that has little to no support for them. Meghan's lament isn't an isolated one.

"Unless the GOP evolves as the party that can successfully utilize the Web, we'll continue to lose influence. I think nothing confirms this fact to be more true than this recent election. I don’t claim to be an expert on mobilizing voters, but a significant number of the readers on mccainblogette.com, my blog, were between the ages of 18 and 30, a key demographic that either party would want. Many of the established Republican strategists told me that young people would not visit my web site."

So, Meghan started calling around asking people about the kind of outreach that happened online from the GOP to see what people's opinions were. Her findings?

"Instead, they told me that not having enough money was a huge factor in our loss—not our misuse of the Internet. Others were just plain angry, blaming the liberal media, and not the party's shortcomings online. Of course, there is truth in some of this. But denial only amplifies the stereotypes about Republicans being disconnected."

I live in the heartland, Meghan... I feel you're pain. No one here really gets the internet either. They think we're liberal because we blog - gotta love it! Her friend Rob Kubasko who helped develop mccainblogette.com tells her that it isn't the technology so much as having a message driven system that I guess includes the technology. He goes on to say that people want to be on Twitter because its cool but their tweets are lame making them part of the disconnect not the solution.

Another friend Becky Donatelli says that more and more people are getting their news from the Daily Show and SNL and spending the day on their Blackberry and laptops. She says that old school political operatives are aggravated by this (I agree but don't isolate it to the GOP) but it makes you wonder if these operatives are just choosing not to evolve simply because they don't like what the alternative is: Uncontrolled renegades unbridled by strategy and message campaigns wildly submitting whatever their thoughts online for the world to see.

Sounds like a party!

Meghan says "Until the Republican party joins the twenty-first century and learns how to use the Internet, its members will keep getting older and the youth of America will just keep logging on to the other side."

I would argue that technology is a big part of this because its where we spend our time, but I think having a message, political philosophy, and strong outreach in person as well as online is key to capturing the youth of America. That was the problem with STORM - its not enough to know that youth are on SN's its about knowing them well enough to understand where they are

I'm about to get in the car to head down to Baltimore. I'm staying with my aunt and taking the metro into DC tomorrow for the inauguration and then again at night for the official youth ball. I plan on taking tons of pictures at both events. I'll try to upload them and blog about the experience during the afternoon when I have some down time. For those at home, the youth ball will be broadcast on MTV at 10pm Eastern. In the meantime, here's some interesting reads and updates on things we've blogged about previously:

• The biggest news is that OFA 2.0 officially launched as Organizing for America - a reimagination of the Obama political operation inside the DNC. I share Micah Sifry's take on it thus far. Here's the announcement from the President Elect himself:

• Speaking of organizing for America, today's is the national day of service planned by the Obama campaign. Follow along or find an opportunity in your area at the USA Service website. Also do check out Peter Levine's blog post about today's volunteer activities.
• Future Majority got a shout-out in the latest youth/constituent newsletter from Speaker Pelosi's office. You can sign up for those emails here.
• Campus Progress lists 6 things the incoming Obama administration must do to make headway on the issues that matter to young voters.
• Rock the Vote polled its membership to determine the direction of the organization in 2009. Preliminary results are here, and they tend to favor policy work aimed at solving the economic crisis.
• Eric Greenberg has a nice piece at the Huffington Post explaining the importance of young voters in the 2008 campaign.
• The New York Times has a nice photo essay of Obama's 50 closest advisors. There are three Millennials in the group. Check it out.
• On the other side of the aisle, the Houston Chronicle interviews Young Republican Chairman Jessica Colon and asks her how the Republicans can recapture the youth vote.
• Finally, in light of tomorrow's events, I think we can all recognize and celebrate this as an especially significant time to celebrate Martin Luther King Day:

The Discovery Channel YouTube channel Why? Tell me Why? Addressed the question of why young voters vote the way they do and old voters vote the way they do.

Irwin Morris from the University of Maryland says these are tendencies that develop depending on the political environment. Young people have come of age in an era with unpopular Republicanism thus they are more inclined to harness those anti-republican sentiments and carry them with them throughout the course of their lives.

The same is/has been true for older voters who he said came of age in an era of anti-democratic tendencies which is why they lean more toward republicans. This might also account for the messages republicans used nearing election day about communism and socialism etc... because those were real threats that older voters faced when they were first beginning to cast ballots.

These kinds of arguments of course flopped on young voters who only know about socialism within the context of republican finger pointing and communism with regard to Cuban relations or history classes about the former Soviet Union.

With "reliable seniors" as a major voting demographic in the past, this was a good strategy, but as we saw with the new data, young voters surpassed those seniors in turnout and at least a third of the seniors voted for Obama.

My hope is that this means we are finally beyond the idea that crying "socialism" and "communist" are helpful to a campaign.

Our schadenfreuderific week continues. Matt Browner Hamlin and Boing Boing contribute more to the Ashley Todd story. Here's Matt hitting the nail on the head:

That is, Ashley Todd is one of the College Republicans top 50 organizers in the entire country. One of fifty. The future of the College Republicans and the Republican Party on whole. She is one of the best they have. And she’s a serial liar who is facing criminal charges after making racist, hateful claims in the closing days of the presidential campaign.

Ashley Todd came to LITF08 with a history of doing phenomenally dishonest and dishonorable shit. No doubt this is a qualifying characteristic for the Atwater-Rove school of Republican operatives. It’s all she has, though, and it’s all the Republican Party has nowadays. If there is any fouler symptom of the rotting corpse of the Republican Party, I don’t know what it is.

Over at the Great Orange Satan, Kos picks up on some hilarity from the older, "young" Republicans (read: under 45):

The "Young Eagles" is open to anyone under the age of 45, which I suppose is "young" for John McCain's party. But beyond that cheap joke, note how (PDF) the GOP builds "the next generation of the Republican Party":

• A full year’s membership in the Young Eagles requires a $7,500 personal contribution per year. All benefits included.
• A half year’s membership in the Young Eagles requires a $3,750 person contribution per year. All benefits included. **Meeting fee may apply**
• On occasion, prospective members will have the opportunity to attend events based on a $1,500 meeting fee. This fee may be applied towards a full membership.

Can't afford it? Don't worry! Fleece your friends of $30,000 and you get the membership comp'd! Man, the differences are stark. While Democrats are busy building the next generation of Democrats, one small contribution at a time, Republicans are trying to squeeze "young" Republicans to the tune of $7,500. And if you can't afford that? Worry not! $1,500 will get you into individual events. Which is the party of elitists again?

And what does that buy you, besides feeding a dying husk of a formerly national party? Access. Ponying up the kind of money no "young" person really has (beyond the trust fund set) gets you to attend meetings with power players ("elected officials and policy experts"). How 1984. Is it any wonder why the world is passing the GOP by?

Dirty tricks and big bucks for "access" in a time of national crisis. Meanwhile, our youth groups are out there knocking on doors to get out the vote for the whole ballot. They're pushing back on bogus media claims, not making them. At the top o the ticket, Senator Obama is promoting service, sacrifice and working together to solve our problems. And he's doing it on the back of 3 million small-dollar donors. Is it any wonder youth are voting Democrats by a 2 - 1 margin?

These are two of my new friends. Princella and Richard, who, despite their republicanism are remarkable young leaders. Wednesday, I met with many of the Young Republicans in the party who can't help but notice that the stereotypes of old, white, men are more valid than they would like.

Leaders from the popular youth blog HipHopRepublican.com sat down with me to talk about opportunities that their party could harness if they were only willing to do the kind of outreach that Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama's campaign does.

The young people all have ambitions to achieve goals or run for office, but they are fighting an uphill battle in a tough establishment world. Its the one thing that we as young democrats share with them. Their optimism reigns supreme, however, and they push mountains in efforts to move their party to something a little more mainstream or at the very least reflective of the 21st Century.

I sat down with Princella Smith, a young woman who works for former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich's new organization American Solutions. Ms. Smith got her start from a competition offered by MTV several years ago that allowed her to play a major roll in forums during the previous presidential election. She now serves as a major policy adviser and spokesperson for American Solutions - all before the age of 30. She is connected and personable.

In passing I mentioned that I was hoping to get an interview with Michael Steele candidate for Lt. Governor in Maryland. I had seen his commercials years ago when he ran and enjoyed the ad which became known as the Puppy Kicker ad from 2006 that I still find to be so outside the box and original. His concept of anti-washington and change endeared me to him, as much as a partisan hack like myself could be endeared to a republican.

Princella quickly dragged me over to what was known as Radio Row where all the talk news stations were poised to do interviews as politicians and prominent party people passed through the halls. Against the wall was Michael Steele doing a quick interview. Princella introduced us and before I knew it snapped a picture. I can safely say that it is the only picture of me with a Republican politician. But Michael Steele I don't mind, because at least he likes puppies. See the full video of the interview with Princella here.

Morgan Thomas is still in collage but already works on three campaigns this year all while serving her duties on the national board of Young Republicans. She is clearly a bright and eager young woman who hopes to win a mayoral seat before she is 30 and eventually run for governor. This was her first convention and the nomination of Gov. Sarah Palin had excited and encouraged her as a young female republican. See the full video of my interview with her here.

Claudio Simpkins told me that he frequently gets confused for Barack Obama, and with a beaming smile it isn't hard to understand why. From a broken home that had drugs and hardship bearing down on him it would have been easy for him to fall between the cracks of the system. Instead, Claudio rose to the challenge and is now at Harvard Law School. He has a deep passion to give back to his community with no real immediate enthusiasm about running for office. It doesn't stop him from having a little fun when people ask his friends "Wait... Is that? Is that him!?" See the full interview of him here.

Richard Ivory came up to my cafe table asking if we could share it because there weren't any others around. We introduced ourselves and I knew instantly that we were allies in the youth movement. Richard started HipHopRepublican in attempts to bring more youth to politics on his side of the partisan divide. Republicans aren't popular in New York City and Richard describes himself as a moderate who is heavily influenced by Mayor Michael Bloomberg whose campaign he worked on. After talking issues with Richard, I couldn't help think that back home in the Bible-Belt he would be a Democrat... but decided not to alienate him.

It was Richard that guided me to some of these most remarkable people that I met while at the RNC. A majority of the time I spent with Richard was with him shouting and running after passers by who he thought would be good for me to talk to.

Richard is up to his chin in hope for the youth movement to gain traction in the GOP. His connectivity and tenacity are honorable and unbelievable, but his friendliness and hope for his party's future is what brings people to him. Along with his friends and colleagues he hopes to bring the GOP into the new century where the party is more reflective of our country in race, in gender, and in age. It is with this kind of community Richard thinks they can sustain their party.

While I certainly don't agree with them on a lot of issues, if these were the faces of the GOP it would be a lot more difficult for opposition to succeed.

CE and Brett, the co-authors of the new book Why You're Wrong About the Right think, however, that the old white stereotype is not the reality they see when looking at their friends. CE tells me she has a good time, goes out, parties and goes to ball games. She's not an old fuddy duddy like some of the delegates seen on the floor night after night. See the full interview with these two co-authors here.

She is clearly a strong, polished, and well educated young woman who remembers with clarity Bill Clinton's outreach at the MTV/Rock the Vote candidate forum in 1992 where the famous Boxer or Briefs question was asked. CE says the mere outreach by him was a huge step for a politician to make, and she's surprised that there haven't been any republicans since take on similar forms of outreach. The book presents photos and interviews with those who don't fit the traditional appearance of the GOP. Youthful and minority faces shine from the pages as the argument is presented that not everyone is old and white.

The others would say that its just most of them.

Embedded through the links above are the entire interviews of these remarkable young people, and above is my comprehensive clips and soundbites of their comments. Also see my interview with Armstrong Williams, conservative talk radio host about these topics.

At the end of the convention the only thing I can say is that regardless of the party, young people are consistently being ignored this election when our votes are the ones that have made candidates since 2006.

The New York Times blog The Caucus has an interesting story up on the Republican Party, its failure to reach out to young voters, and the feelings of frustration young Republicans have about it.

Check it out.

One comment I have is a general observation of all of these pieces that tend to be published every few weeks or so: those young Republicans that are interviewed are always ignoring reality. They feel like eventually there's going to be this gradual shift toward Republicans as the voters get older.

Some young Republicans seemed unsure of how to assuage their peers’ concerns. Asked how to respond to a younger generation that tends to be more supportive of gay rights, a young social conservative said that when people “become older” and have their own families, they will start to take social issues more seriously.

Mr. Black, a fiscal conservative who is openly gay, said almost the same thing about taxes: “When you get older you experience some of those issues that Republicans deal with.”

Still, he said, Republicans should not just wait for young Democrats to grow up. Republican activists “can’t just assume that they’re eventually going to come through. They need to be the alternative at the time they’re making the decision.”

The bit about taking social issues more seriously is simply not true. Research shows that those youth voting for a particular party for three straight elections typically develop a bond with that party for the rest of their lives. This myth has actually been shredded several times on this blog in the past.

Now, these younger Republicans do seem to feel the urgency a bit more than the old, white, male crowd. I actually commend them for looking for ways to reach out to youth. And there seems to be some acknowledgment early in the article that the way to do this is peer-to-peer interaction, so they're on the right path.

But this means we need to get our own act in order. Mike has discussed the atrophy of the youth infrastructure this election cycle due to the severely limited funding. It might be a while before the Republicans get the hint that an aggressive outreach toward youth will pay huge dividends in the future, but I don't want to be in a position where we're standing still until they do.

Republicans have a long way to go with youth, but we have lots of work to do too.

UPDATE: A Josh Marshall summation of Palin's comment last night in her speech makes it crystal clear why Republicans aren't successful with young voters.

Palin: Community service is for losers and freaks.